If the Nino forcing can't get going by mid-late summer and given very high Atlantic SSTs, then this hurricane season has the potential to really catch folks off guard.
The bar is extremely low after last winter especially south of 41N
Hell a 10" winter would be nearly a 5x improvement for places like NYC.
I'll take a strong Nino over the crap we've been dealing with because at least there's a chance at something interesting. It also shakes up the stagnant Nina pattern.