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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Just compare each decade with previous decades and you'll get your answer. Warming has been steady if not accelerating and though cold/snowy periods still occur their frequency has diminished greatly. As things warm the frequency of wetter years will also go up. And though dry periods will occur, our region as a whole will see average rainfall totals go up.
  2. SnoSki14
    And yet some will say it's not as bad because it's not Dec 15. Well +5 against the highest normals is terrible. But I guess you could be +10 or better like folks further west
  3. SnoSki14
    Totally has nothing to do with AGW though. Just bad luck
  4. SnoSki14
    Most El Ninos don't really kick off winter until late Jan and Feb so that's probably our best shot this year. I think 15-20" could be reasonable as it wouldn't take much. The SSW timing would align well with Nino climo too given its lag time.
  5. SnoSki14
    At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. Makes me lucky to be alive during the snowy 2000s & 2010s.
  6. SnoSki14
    Snow pack? Most would be lucky to see a snowstorm
  7. SnoSki14
    Nino climo with a SSW early Jan would be significant for late Jan and Feb. Would be nice to score something in the Jan 1-10 period too.
  8. SnoSki14
    Looks like January will open BN with snow opportunities followed by a Jan thaw mid month and then Nino climo really kicks off late Jan into Feb. CFS weeklies depict this very well.
  9. SnoSki14
    ?
  10. SnoSki14
    In the 2000s we used to have highs in the teens for December, now getting below freezing in the city at night is an achievement.
  11. SnoSki14
    We really are just frogs slowly boiling Humanity is so f*cked
  12. SnoSki14
    I'll sign up for that. Though even my area got side swiped at times. The best action was 20+ miles south of me.
  13. SnoSki14
    Good chance we get decent snows in January. Split flow pattern. Plenty of cold for snow and favorable climo. Remember you don't need arctic cold for snow. I know everyone's jaded but the pattern isn't bad at all. People act like a giant ridge is forecast And appreciate Snowman19 graduating from the weenie emoji. Big step for him
  14. SnoSki14
    Need a few more days of this though. We've seen things get pushed back far too often
  15. SnoSki14
    That's workable in January for sure when climo helps.
  16. SnoSki14
    And we're the cooler region this month. The warmth out west (Midwest, plains) has been ridiculous
  17. SnoSki14
    You don't need a +PNA if that setup verifies. That's a split flow pattern. It would snow a lot if true. Huge emphasis on 'IF' though.
  18. SnoSki14
    Should be quite gusty on the backside, possibly up to 45mph
  19. SnoSki14
    Just saying EPS/GEFS look good. MJO will be favorable too. It's not cold by any stretch of the imagination, just cold enough for snow with a potentially favorable storm track. And Snowman is daily post limited for a reason..just sayin. All he can do is hurl weenies now
  20. SnoSki14
    Believe it or not I think the post Christmas into Jan 10 period could be favorable for snows even down to us. Will take a while to get cold so after new year's is when I think we get accumulating snows.
  21. SnoSki14
    You're getting 3"+ guaranteed. When the LLJ cranks it'll downpour right over this region. Every model shows this. The slight westward component to the low could mean higher winds as well.
  22. SnoSki14
    This looks more potent than a typical coastal system.
  23. SnoSki14
    That is a beast on radar/vapor. I wouldn't be surprised if this was the rare occasion where impacts are worse than forecast.
  24. SnoSki14
    Temperatures are clearly warming but snow trends can vary however there are certain thresholds where that breaks down. Right now NYC's climate is getting closer to what Virginia's was while SNE is getting closer to NYC. The decadal warming trends can't be overlooked.
  25. SnoSki14
    Globals more east though trending west, mesos are west. Given the dynamics with powerful LLJ I'd favor the mesos. Eastern half of NJ, NYC and LI will get a beat down.
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