
SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's just no good right now. It doesn't take much to correct warmer for us. 0z EPS did that already. There's just too much troughiness out west. Some people never learn.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Bluewave is just telling it like it is. I know many don't want to hear it but the airmass is definitely marginal. He's just illustrating the challenges. I would honestly be surprised to see much for the coast.- 3,610 replies
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- 3
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- snow
- heavy rain
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I'm not a fan of this pattern. You still have very deep troughing out west which can easily overwhelm any -NAO/AO pattern. I think it's a waiting game until February when Pacific improves.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
GFS looked like crap though. Not enough dynamics to overcome warm surface temps.- 3,610 replies
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- 2
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'm guessing the inland track is your thinking with this.- 3,610 replies
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- snow
- heavy rain
- (and 5 more)
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
We'll break our streak one way or another. February could be very wintry imo. Anything this month will be a bonus- 3,610 replies
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- 2
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- snow
- heavy rain
- (and 5 more)
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Not sure you'd want a snowstorm given the major cutter behind it. With all the rain we've had that's a recipe for flooding disaster. Snow beforehand would only increase the threat.- 3,610 replies
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- snow
- heavy rain
- (and 5 more)
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah this is a rainstorm. Keep the shades closed for the coast til February.- 3,610 replies
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- 4
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Getting a significant snow event to the coast with a trough out west like that is unheard of. I expect further N&W trends so that the coast is mostly rain. At this point snowfall this year for the coastal plain will be relegated to February when the Pacific should improve.- 3,610 replies
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- 5
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- snow
- heavy rain
- (and 5 more)
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
GFS with a nice weenie run- 3,610 replies
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- snow
- heavy rain
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Still would rather be in New England though. Not a fan of that Pacific pattern
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Would be nice for those trends to continue
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It would just be bizarre because we're in a seemingly Nina background state but there's a strong Nino too. It's like two wrongs do make it right in this instance. At least there's something to track I suppose
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I doubt the volcano had much of an effect. The aerosols sure. It also doesn't help that we're lagging big time with renewables and clean energy. I think coal outputs reached record highs actually
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If it did produce it would be one of those oddball combinations which to be fair have been more frequent.
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Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer
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Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Still the key will be that 4th system. Perhaps the poor Pacific will allow that one to keep amplifying
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That's not a bad look
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The storm that kicked off 2 decades of amazingly snowy seasons and killed the rut of those rough late 90s winters.
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Cold is dumping west and that's a smoothed out look. Probably would see more ridging in the east.
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Which means that day when he finally forecasts snow, it's definitely going to snow.
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So zero snow this year? And it's not just us, it's the entire CONUS
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You know its bad when so far this winter is starting out much worse than last year at this time (temp wise). And we had like 2" last winter.
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I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. I just wish it wasn't so rainy. February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.