SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Very little 90+ potential over next 10+ days. Monday had a chance but models have backed off. More high dew driven warmth.
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Near 70F dews is plenty tropical for heavy rains
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It's summer so you can't rely on synoptic rains anymore. It will be a game of have vs havenots. Someone's going to get a lot of rain and someone isn't. Dews look very tropical though and any sun will aid in tstorm development quickly
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Pretty evident zone of shear over Caribbean and western parts of MDR Could be the season of storms rapidly forming east only to disintegrate as they get closer. It's still early though but a strong Nino would reinforce this mechanism. -
It's amazing how confident they are in their false reality...no data no facts just whatever they want it to be. Social media was truly the downfall of humanity
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Dews don't arrive until Friday
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Tropical dews are coming and so is the rain.
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Idk about 72/73 which was more bad luck than anything btw. Today's climate is drastically different than back then too. Using composites that far back in today's rapid CC era may not work out.
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Not sure what people are complaining about. Plenty of warm/hot weather to come soon. Real summer starts in July anyway especially for you New England folks
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Amount of daylight also matters imo, which is why I consider summer June 1 - August 31. Huge decline in daylight Sept 1-21
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More like 55 +/- a degree or two. Average is low 80s so we're about 15 below.
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Anyone claiming bust right now is an idiot. Very convectively charged pattern to develop. Some places will see several inches of rain but not everyone. Still it looks pretty widespread to me. Definitely a summery pattern with much higher dews
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Can't believe solstice is tomorrow. The long days are the best part about the summer imo.
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It looks pretty widespread to me.
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Euro/EPS are quite wet last 10 days of June
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Which is why you actually need a strong Nino if you want a coupled atmospheric response Perhaps even a Nino equivalent to the strong/super Nino years of the past will net a much more muted atmospheric response due to multiple competing influences like the Pacific warm pool. Very fascinating to see what will happen
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That Midwest/Ohio Valley trough is ideal for us to get plenty of rain/tstorms this time of year
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Not sure if typical Nino caveats apply either in this new climate Hell it's a developing strong Nino and we're getting multiple MDR systems in June
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Gfs trending decidedly less summery.
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Gfs trending more unsettled again for us as well.
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Not ready to bite yet. That looks like an omega pattern to me. Perhaps the trough will be to the east but too early to tell
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I'm a bit skeptical of this sudden flip but we'll see.
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I feel like CFS flip flops a lot though. I mean I'm leaning towards another torch but hopefully it'll be like 2015-16 with one good monster storm.
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That composite has the 2 worst winters on record for the east. 72-73 was the least snowiest winter in NYC prior to this winter. So I really hope that's wrong however back to back sucky winters aren't uncommon (see 96/97-99/00 or any 80s years)
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All this cool talk but I think June still would've been slightly AN using the older averages and May definitely would've been AN. But I guess less hot is the new cool nowadays
