SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The rains have been mediocre outside of NW NJ so I'm not getting my hopes up. But at least it's better than last July
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Good downpour for sure but places just north are probably getting slammed. 2-3+ amounts wouldn't surprise me for them.
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Just missing it by 5 miles or so south
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There's gotta be a New Brunswick shield or something. Line is weak sauce around here while stronger everywhere else
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I remember when the climate change skeptics would use above normal Antarctic sea ice as a way to push back against the scientific consensus. What's their excuse now?
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Correct which is why it's premature to assume next winter will play out like a standard strong east based Nino Our typical ENSO configurations are losing their grip as CC effects get compounded year after year
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We'll avoid the 95+ heat for now
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
There's no eastern trough -
Models targeted NW areas that got slammed and weakened it quickly further east So they nailed it
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The rains have arrived here
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Getting really dark now. The heavy rains are very close near New Brunswick
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Hopefully 3-4
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Yikes I'm very close to that yellow
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The main line is far back. The heavy stuff doesn't come til late afternoon Additionally as the trough pushes east you'll get overhead development further east as well ahead of the line.
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Some places in eastern PA/NW NJ will see 10"+
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It's all about the forcing which is displaced westward far moreso than a super Nino like 97-98
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Atmosphere is juiced already. Getting a lot of activity out ahead of the main line
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You'd be surprised how quickly things can flood even with dryness during these high PWAT situations in the summer. There's gonna be some 2-4" per hour amounts with this
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There's probably going to be a west lean to the heavy rains but we should see some good rains further east too.
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It's going to get worse
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Yeah a whole minute wow. Things do ramp up quickly after mid July though.
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It'll happen eventually. If the ridges link up then all bets are off
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The idea of a BN or even normal summer is completely dead. I wouldn't be shocked to see 100s this month We aren't even under a strong ridge and we've seen mid 90s and 90+ temps.
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Sunday looks like a flooding day
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The GFS has been hinting at it. This month we have the high dews as well. Imagine 105-110F with 75+ dews. Yikes
