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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Yes that's positive to see
  2. SnoSki14
    At least there was follow-up from the 18z and no it's not a bad spot this far out but we want other models to show something similar
  3. SnoSki14
    Only a few hours until the 0z suite crushes everyone's hopes and dreams. I just don't buy it given the fast flow we've been dealing with
  4. SnoSki14
    Agreed I just don't buy it given the fast flow. 0z GFS will probably go back to reality
  5. SnoSki14
    I'm guessing 18z GFS was more fluky given other models/ensembles but just goes to show what would happen if that energy south gets ejected in time. Literally the difference between a non/small event and historic blizzard
  6. SnoSki14
    At this point one of our typically crappiest pattern will be the one that gives us a HECS And a moderate Nino with strong blocking is probably ideal for us. Strong STJ with cold air flowing down. Unfortunately we've been dealing with the opposite aka Nina dominated pattern
  7. SnoSki14
    This weather sucks. Give me warm and dry over this weather if it's not going to snow. Oh and the wind makes it so much worse
  8. SnoSki14
    GFS is just miserable. Mostly cold & dry...yuck
  9. SnoSki14
    Northern stream is too fast and leaves behind that Baja energy. It's been a problem for years now. Best case is maybe 2-4/3-6" type deal so a slightly more amped up version of the GFS.
  10. SnoSki14
    Game over Congrats Mid-Atlantic they're gonna clean up.
  11. SnoSki14
    These are conflicting viewpoints. If CC is altering the MJO and forcing due to record warm ssts then it's affecting the pattern. And in this case in a negative way for snow/cold
  12. SnoSki14
    Wouldn't be a bad look if it materialized
  13. SnoSki14
    No
  14. SnoSki14
    Seeing all these disappointments over the last few years really makes me appreciate the epic snow pattern of the 2000s and 2010s. I'm sure we'll eventually get a nice big snowstorm but it's going to take a lot of work. And we still have time before the CC warming destroys our hopes. Just look at DC with their upcoming storm.
  15. SnoSki14
    This could easily end up too wound up. From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter.
  16. SnoSki14
    Don't expect more than a dusting to an inch and hopefully we'll get a surprise
  17. SnoSki14
    I'm willing to bet we get skunked again
  18. SnoSki14
    Funniest thing would be is if the storm ends up being a big wound up rainer for everyone.
  19. SnoSki14
    Tellies would favor a big storm but our luck has been terrible
  20. SnoSki14
    They barely get any snow anymore. I think Richmond has like an 8 year streak. But dead clock
  21. SnoSki14
    Tell that to the NE forum crowd
  22. SnoSki14
    Still stinks but globals probably aren't the way to go. A lot of upstream convection that could affect how intense and /or north the fringe gets. Mesos will handle this a lot better.
  23. SnoSki14
    In this instance that could end up further south. We won't know exactly where that fringe sets up until tomorrow probably. 12z suite needs to shift slightly north today otherwise even I-78 will be too far north
  24. SnoSki14
    Once again the monstrous elephant in the room aka CC is being ignored. There's a reason why the northern stream has been so dominant, why the endless Nina pattern hasn't left, why there are too many cooks in the kitchen every winter that screw things up. Every new pattern is a dice roll and it's getting harder and harder to get a good result.
  25. SnoSki14
    I still think the 11-12 system has potential and then probably before we change to warmer pattern.
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