SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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They'll also ignore that everyone outside the US has been on fire this winter. It was enough to set more monthly global temperature records.
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March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust.
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He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad.
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Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph.
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Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. Parts of Mid Atlantic/SE will end up with more snow than us this winter.
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Sun Angle isn't a problem until after 1st week of March. It certainly won't be an issue in February.
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Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles
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I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however
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A cutter with a near -5 AO is unheard of. Something has changed. The SE ridge would've never been this strong in the past
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Cut to someone saying this would've still been a cutter 100+ years ago No CC has completely altered the norms. Probably why we're not experiencing the usual Nina pattern this winter either.
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Probably an inch or two front end snows. I see big potential for the 20th. All major models show something brewing.
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HRRR gives nothing. Dry air eats it all up
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That looks generous given HRRR & radar. I'll go with an inch tops
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If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track.
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I actually think the weekend has potential. I think we can nab 1-2" tomorrow and get something next weekend.
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That doesn't surprise me.
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I would still go with 1-3" over the area. Maybe we'll get a last minute north bump as we did on Saturday
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Nam would probably be an advisory level (2-4") event here in central NJ. Also NWS mentioned higher ratios 13:1 vs 10:1 possible.
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Probably best chance at something but ensembles showed 20-30" over the next 10 days and look what happened. Not taking anything seriously until it's 2-3 days out
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Such a strong blocking pattern in the past would've led to a much stronger PV that extended much further south. As Bluewave said we've never seen such a strong -AO that equaled a cutter pattern.
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The scope of arctic air would've been much larger and extended a lot further south.
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Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"
