SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Models backing off big time on the -NAO and huge blocking pattern. Gfs LR even has a massive ridge on east coast, thoughts?
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Well now they're showing more of a +PNA, which gives me more confidence on a sustained BN period. It's far less risky than an Omega Block.
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Well to be fair I'm just looking to see if there are snow opportunities, so yeah it doesn't have to stay BN as long as a pattern develops down the line that could give us our first snowfall. I've heard a lot of discussion around Thanksgiving time for snow but that's way out there obviously.
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I don't see how we're going to see sustained BN temps with such a deep trough on the west coast despite the development of high latitude blocking.
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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2
SnoSki14 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. Those 80s must have been putrid. -
It's never ending because it has become the norm so people think that's how it's supposed to be. People don't really notice how extreme it is unless it's centered around winter or summer. People definitely noticed Dec 2015 and they'll definitely notice the next record warm July-August.
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Funny thing is that most of the general public would love such an outcome. Low heating bills, no wintry mess/disruptions on the roads, mild & beautiful weather in the 50s-70s from Dec-March is an ideal scenario for 95% of the population. It sounds pretty great to me too. I want this to be the first winter with zero snowfall in NYC because it has never been done before. I think we'll get close. We had several years of great snowfalls and snowstorms so I don't mind seeing nothing this season.
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I don't mind it being warm in November, my ideal temps are 60s. We're easily setting up for the latest freeze on record though.
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Any rapidly intensifying storm with a tropical influence has the ability to send some strong winds to the surface, it doesn't hurt that SST's are well AN. I am curious if the western Caribbean system ends up a lot stronger and more energy gets entrained within the frontal boundary. Regardless if I see 1-2" of rain and a couple 45-50 mph gusts then I'll be happy.
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Sundays storm does look pretty impressive especially if we can get a more organized tropical system to come north.
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It would really take for a highly anomalous pattern to give us another BN month but any BN weather like this past August are just bumps in the road in an otherwise torch like state. We were very fortunate to not get these record months during the summer but it's coming.
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Some incredible ridging showing up for Nov on the gfs/euro.E Early guess is we see +10 departures for November as this brief late October cooldown is only transient.
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At least there's something interesting going on before a return to the same ole warm & dry pattern.
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Gfs trying to give us the cold beginning around Halloween and into November. A few shots of heavy rain as well with strong ridging east of New England and several lows coming up the coast.
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Wow if the Euro is correct we could see widespread record breaking highs next weekend.
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However you slice it they'll be plenty more warmth to come, we may see longer cooler interludes than the last few weeks, but a lot of that has to do with natural seasonal progression. We won't see a more permanent change until the pattern changes, which would fall around the seasonal transition to winter.
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I agree that cold is overrated but if you want snow then we can't cross our fingers every winter and hope we get lucky again. Our luck last winter was remarkable and it won't last. I'm encouraged by the Euro monthlies that show us maybe grabbing one decent month, December, this winter. It may not be much but I'll take what I can get at this point. Hopefully the pattern is on a three month cycle and we revert back to the summer pattern in time for winter.
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Well then you can kiss winter goodbye, a torch Oct/Nov is a winter killer. Enjoy the 60s/70 in Dec-Feb.
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Your statement came across as if Nate was a joke because there wasn't death and destruction. Even taking away what happened in Central America that's a very morbid thing to say.
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Wow what an idiotic statement.
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Another non-fall, we've basically become a two season region with summer dominating for 8-9 months of the year. Unbelievably high departures coming up with several days of mid 80s likely, the rate of global warming is truly shocking. Easily think this month will be the hottest October on record.
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With record breaking 20C 850 mb temps and an insane -4 PNA trough I'll be shocked if a lot of places don't hit 90.
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It's going to be difficult to get 90s when the greatest height rises are to our north, that combined with tropical influences could prevent us from hitting 90. It's also tough to get that high post 9/15, it would be record breaking if we saw 90s.
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I don't see any indication of more 90s going into early September. It took a lot of effort for us to hit our last 90F and climo says it becomes very tough after 1st week of September.
