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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The strong PNA ridge could ultimately help turn the hugger into a coastal but there's little cold air to work with in general. Pattern change is a work in progress but there will be opportunities moving forward.
  2. SnoSki14
    Unless it's a strong cool down it'll always break warm in the long range. We cannot escape the reality of AGW.
  3. SnoSki14
    Agree especially with the massive teleconnection shifts (+PNA, -AO/NAO) in a stormy direction.
  4. SnoSki14
    Best chance for snow will be during the retrogression or the Dec 6-13 period.
  5. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't be quick to assume the 2nd half goes all warm for us. I'm not sure many had the current developments in their forecast. It's difficult to compare this year to 80s analogs given how much has changed over that time. 2nd week of December looks interesting for sure.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's going to take a few days for that to be sorted out. I'd still go with the phased solution rather than whatever the gfs is doing. One thing I'll be keeping an eye on in the ensembles is whether or not the PNA ridge rolls over or not. If it does then we'll warm very quickly by mid December.
  7. SnoSki14
    A torched Canada is still cold. EPS/GEFS look good moving forward however there's not a ton of cold to work with. I do like that they're poking further north with the ridging.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'm not convinced that it's gonna be like 11-12 because the pattern is not fully coupled with the Nina. Last winter was already a 11/12 style winter. I think it'll be much more variable than people think.
  9. SnoSki14
    Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.
  10. SnoSki14
    So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?
  11. SnoSki14
    Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north.
  12. SnoSki14
    It's like talking to a brick wall. You could present 1000s of examples and they'll make an excuse for all of them. Don't waste your breath.
  13. SnoSki14
    This sucker is poised to be a major (3rd after Paulette) and I have zero doubt it'll impact the US eventually but all those island interactions will complicate things.
  14. SnoSki14
    That would be the one to watch. The other one near Bermuda should be a nice wave maker if it gets to major status. PNA expected to tank which means strong ridging building out east.
  15. SnoSki14
    I see this year as a late bloomer. Late September through October could be very active with a rather late onset of Nina conditions.
  16. SnoSki14
    Also if we are back to the 30s-50s does that mean the Arctic was as warm and sea ice as low back then as it is now?
  17. SnoSki14
    Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot.
  18. SnoSki14
    Humans developed nuclear weapons that could literally destroy the atmosphere. We're responsible for mass ecological extinctions. You have to be a complete fool to think humans can't overpower natural forces but please stay ignorant.
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.
  20. SnoSki14
    There appears to be a high likelihood of a storm targeting the east coast in about 10-14 days. Too early to say if the steering pattern would allow for impacts but the trend this summer has been for increased ridging especially over NE Canada and we've already had 2 systems impact the northeast.
  21. SnoSki14
    Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard. Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon.
  22. SnoSki14
    We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period. Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US.
  23. SnoSki14
    Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states.
  24. SnoSki14
    You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts.
  25. SnoSki14
    There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
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