SnoSki14

We'll probably see some sort of coastal around Jan 3rd. Nice NAO dip, AO looks to be neutral and PNA is rising. Not sure if there's enough cold though for anything wintry.

The 7th is too early. Mid month looks more accurate but who knows what the SOI/MJO will do. The SOI Spike and latest MJO are definitely concerning. At the very least this will delay any pattern change. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 2/3 of Jan.

12z Gfs decides to torch the whole CONUS near mid Jan for good measure. Yeah I know it's fantasy and Earthlight did say we could see a warm Jan 5-10 period. However I'm seeing a lot of forecasters try to make sense of what's happening because I think they're having a tough time grasping it. On a personal note, I have a bad feeling this winter will go down the tubes. Maybe raindancewx was right about 94/95 & 06/07 being the prime analog years.

That's really something, it makes it really hard to rely on past analogs when the pattern is not behaving the way it should.

Yup, I'll be surprised if we fall short of an inch. In fact I don't think 2" is out of the question.

Weeklies are quite good after week 1. Ensembles look pretty good as well, so things look to be on track. Iso had a nice discussion about what has transpired thus far.

We've been in a relaxed period since November, so that better not happen. At least give me a month of solid winter weather with a couple of decent snow events.

Well no, the past 20 years have been some of the snowiest we've ever seen. I'm shocked we haven't had more bad years. As far as this winter goes, the moment of truth is only 3 weeks away. Either the warmies will look foolish and be forced to eat crow or the forecasters will hide in their bunkers to escape the warmies. Fun times

The fact that the models keep pushing things back is a concern, but maybe it's because they're rushing any pattern change. So far the winter pattern has followed the MJO to a tee. If it does get into phase 7/8, then we'll likely see the models respond in jest.

That's a relief because the latest Gfs shows the Alaskan death vortex near mid Jan and a 11/12 pattern over us.

Very ugly pattern next 2 weeks. Looks like two cutters followed by a brief cold shot and then back to mild/Pacific puke. Shades closed.

Gfs suggesting flooding rains are possible yet again between now and new years.

Just pointing it out, it may be fantasy but it does show we have a long way to go before there's a legit snow chance. I also don't think we should discount the zero snowfall tally for December and the +AO average. There are some definite red flags that are hard to ignore though I still believe we'll see a snowy period.

Probably 25% with increasing chances every week that goes by with anything on the table. The fact that we had zero snowfall in December is a definite red flag, I don't care how good November was.

Fantasy but wow that's a disgusting 18z Gfs op run. Pure Pacific puke with a death vortex over Alaska and tepid -NAO. Jan 1-10 torch?

I'm not sure about promised land but things look a lot better after that, MJO should be entering phase 6. Not looking forward to another 2"+ of rains though, Gfs has rain when the ball drops. I don't think anyone will see anything until mid Jan, pattern remains ugly, though improving, before that. However I don't like seeing that death vortex over Alaska and recently ENSO 1+2 region's have been warming considerably per Don S. post, so this winter could still end up being a failure.

Now that was brutal, hopefully it never happens again.

The tellies aren't really signalling any big upcoming shift yet. AO/NAO/EPO looks to be mainly positive.

The early cold was a tease, the big snowstorm this month hit the SE, there was no snow, there was way too much rain, constant cutters. Temperature departures will end up at +2 or better. Nothing will ever be worse than Dec 2015 but it's in the top 5 worst (last 25-30) years to me.

One of the worst Decembers in my lifetime regarding winter weather. It can only go up from here.

Believe it or not there is a light at the end of this horrendous tunnel. If you just go to last winter, many assumed winter was over once it shut off Jan 10. Luckily our best and brightest knew that wouldn't be the case and we ended up having one of the best Marches on record. This time should be much better as our snowiest period will likely coincide with climo meaning we won't have to worry as much about temps and the sun angle. And wouldn't you know it, our best people are once again forecasting a very snowy period.

The SSW, while won't be necessary for cold/snow for the mid Jan to mid Feb period, can allow for an extension of winter well into March.

Nice to see the MJO on the move. Should get into much more favorable phases 2nd week of January. The SSW timed with the favorable MJO should be interesting to watch unfold later in January. Everything seems to be lining up nicely.

Merry Christmas, may it bring lots of snow.

Looks pretty interesting, could go in multiple directions. Gfs shows more of an Arctic front, some show coastal/wave development. At this point I'll take anything. Gfs/Euro are vastly different going into the new year. MJO supports Euro's eastern ridge idea.