SnoSki14

It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score. The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further. Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns.

This is a darn good snow pattern coming up. It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south.

The Jan 8-10 threat could be the first legit snow chance to look out for. Too far out for Ops though, good storm for ensembles to decipher.

Arctic cold usually equals dry. You don't want that if you want snow.

It seems the models are adjusting to the massive upstream blocking. Heights are substantially lower on the EPS even before the 10th vs a few days ago.

It's actually been trending more favorably too. We might not have to wait till mid month for something.

You're going to get 40+ inches from mid Jan to mid Feb. Expect coastal after coastal under a retrograding -NAO pattern. Pacific flips big time by mid-month. SSW could carry this pattern well into February.

Well hopefully it doesn't all go to sh*t as we approach mid Jan.

SSW can be pretty beneficial for snow chances regardless of where the main cold ends up. It will definitely help improve the Pacific side, which would help a ton. Even modest improvements from the Pacific could yield big snows during intense atlantic blocking periods. Even better that this would occur during a favorable snow climo period (mid Jan through mid Feb).

The hail mary early Jan event could still work out. It's incredibly marginal but a coastal track is favored right now. I think Euro is way too far inland with this especially since it's coming off the heels of the NY's system which will push the baroclinic forcing east. The NY's system acts as a mini 50/50 as well.

But will it actually lead to anything is the question.

I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place.

Way too early for that. That's a stout block on the ensembles so there's always a chance for something to sneak in. GEFS didn't look too bad. Even a brief relaxation of pacific jet would go a long ways.

This December was a lot better than I expected so I'll take it as a win. I'm sure it'll snow again.

The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. Very odd to see

The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good.

Oh good I thought it was just me that thought the new upgrade was trash.

If the Nino state is maintained that would have vast repercussions on all those Feb torch forecasts. As of now it looks like the blockiness will carry on. We've seen months of blockiness in the spring/summer months...I wonder if it'll maintain through winter.

Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum.

Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.

I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.

If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us.

MJO will be moving towards favorable 8-2 phases as well though near the circle. I'd be shocked if we didn't see another major snowstorm by Jan 10.

Nam has another inch or so in a few days.

Let's hope so that'd be a blast. Very strong wind gusts too, gfs shows legit HWW conditions. Fingers crossed for a flash freeze event Xmas eve