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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.
  2. SnoSki14
    I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.
  3. SnoSki14
    If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us.
  4. SnoSki14
    MJO will be moving towards favorable 8-2 phases as well though near the circle. I'd be shocked if we didn't see another major snowstorm by Jan 10.
  5. SnoSki14
    Nam has another inch or so in a few days.
  6. SnoSki14
    Let's hope so that'd be a blast. Very strong wind gusts too, gfs shows legit HWW conditions. Fingers crossed for a flash freeze event Xmas eve
  7. SnoSki14
    I can't believe raindance said that silly statement unless he was referring to the previous system. Still the soil temp idea is pretty ridiculous when it can go from pouring to snow drifts in hours.
  8. SnoSki14
    Is there a side by side of the first image comparing 06Z with 09Z.
  9. SnoSki14
    It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now.
  10. SnoSki14
    Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe.
  11. SnoSki14
    Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north.
  12. SnoSki14
    Definitely. I don't care about playing the jackpot games though. My area had basically nothing last winter so even 6"+ would be a huge win especially in a season where every major forecaster called for a snowless, torch winter.
  13. SnoSki14
    I'd be weary of the overly amped runs too given the strength and placement of the high. Hopefully we all cash in though. I do think the GFS was way too suppressed.
  14. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
  15. SnoSki14
    Very true. About a week ago everything looked hopeless with the Nina ridge returning. Can you imagine if the CMC ends up being correct, talk about a giant hammer to all the doom and gloom wall to wall torch winter forecasts.
  16. SnoSki14
    Light snow falling
  17. SnoSki14
    Bluewave always with the accurate response to rain on the weenie parade. Pacific puke looks to dominate rest of the month. We'd have to be lucky to score with such a putrid airmass over us. Odds would improve in January.
  18. SnoSki14
    The Dec 13-20 could give us something. Like a SWFE with a late coastal transfer, SNE is in a better position than us of course.
  19. SnoSki14
    The Pacific is much more important for cold & snow than the Atlantic, that's always been the case. I'd rather have a -EPO/+PNA with a +AO/NAO. However having a -AO/NAO at least gives an accidental chance of getting snow even if the Pacific is garbage.
  20. SnoSki14
    We'll probably have record high cover in March or April lol
  21. SnoSki14
    I think if late Dec through late Jan can't give us anything then we'll probably challenge the record low snowfall years. However a crazy squall (possible given the high winter lapse rates we've seen lately) could easily drop a quick inch.
  22. SnoSki14
    NYC is still at 40-41
  23. SnoSki14
    Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain.
  24. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get too caught up on things. Models have been shifting like crazy lately. It's also highly unlikely to be locked in. I do like that ensembles continue to show a +PNA and some blocking in the NAO/AO regions. That could be good come January with much more favorable climo.
  25. SnoSki14
    Because we only average 20-25" and are near sea level plus the background warming state. Blocking has also been mostly absent which is critical for anyone south of 41N. There's been years where we've gotten basically nothing like the early & late 90s and 80s. Years like 2010-11 and multiple snowy years from 2000-2018 are anomalies.
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