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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I can't believe raindance said that silly statement unless he was referring to the previous system. Still the soil temp idea is pretty ridiculous when it can go from pouring to snow drifts in hours.
  2. SnoSki14
    Is there a side by side of the first image comparing 06Z with 09Z.
  3. SnoSki14
    It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now.
  4. SnoSki14
    Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe.
  5. SnoSki14
    Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north.
  6. SnoSki14
    Definitely. I don't care about playing the jackpot games though. My area had basically nothing last winter so even 6"+ would be a huge win especially in a season where every major forecaster called for a snowless, torch winter.
  7. SnoSki14
    I'd be weary of the overly amped runs too given the strength and placement of the high. Hopefully we all cash in though. I do think the GFS was way too suppressed.
  8. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
  9. SnoSki14
    Very true. About a week ago everything looked hopeless with the Nina ridge returning. Can you imagine if the CMC ends up being correct, talk about a giant hammer to all the doom and gloom wall to wall torch winter forecasts.
  10. SnoSki14
    Light snow falling
  11. SnoSki14
    Bluewave always with the accurate response to rain on the weenie parade. Pacific puke looks to dominate rest of the month. We'd have to be lucky to score with such a putrid airmass over us. Odds would improve in January.
  12. SnoSki14
    The Dec 13-20 could give us something. Like a SWFE with a late coastal transfer, SNE is in a better position than us of course.
  13. SnoSki14
    The Pacific is much more important for cold & snow than the Atlantic, that's always been the case. I'd rather have a -EPO/+PNA with a +AO/NAO. However having a -AO/NAO at least gives an accidental chance of getting snow even if the Pacific is garbage.
  14. SnoSki14
    We'll probably have record high cover in March or April lol
  15. SnoSki14
    I think if late Dec through late Jan can't give us anything then we'll probably challenge the record low snowfall years. However a crazy squall (possible given the high winter lapse rates we've seen lately) could easily drop a quick inch.
  16. SnoSki14
    NYC is still at 40-41
  17. SnoSki14
    Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain.
  18. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get too caught up on things. Models have been shifting like crazy lately. It's also highly unlikely to be locked in. I do like that ensembles continue to show a +PNA and some blocking in the NAO/AO regions. That could be good come January with much more favorable climo.
  19. SnoSki14
    Because we only average 20-25" and are near sea level plus the background warming state. Blocking has also been mostly absent which is critical for anyone south of 41N. There's been years where we've gotten basically nothing like the early & late 90s and 80s. Years like 2010-11 and multiple snowy years from 2000-2018 are anomalies.
  20. SnoSki14
    Seeing how difficult it is to get a snowstorm here makes you appreciate all the snowstorms in the 2000s & 2010s Just think about what it takes to get it right. Perfect track, cold air supply, PNA, blocking, 50/50 low, etc. and you could have all those things and have the storm miss you by 50 miles. The difficulty will only increase with AGW making our climate more and more like Virginia.
  21. SnoSki14
    There's still time for changes to be made. I quite like the Dec 8th setup actually. It would be nice if this pattern could repeat in late Dec and Jan.
  22. SnoSki14
    Could the 8th offer a sneaky coastal? Models are showing more potential there and we have a tendency to see OTS systems trend west. There's also enough cold air around too.
  23. SnoSki14
    The only thing consistent is that warmth will always win out. 2000-2018 will be the best snow period we'll ever experience and it's all downhill from there.
  24. SnoSki14
    The strong PNA ridge could ultimately help turn the hugger into a coastal but there's little cold air to work with in general. Pattern change is a work in progress but there will be opportunities moving forward.
  25. SnoSki14
    Unless it's a strong cool down it'll always break warm in the long range. We cannot escape the reality of AGW.
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