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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    SSW can be pretty beneficial for snow chances regardless of where the main cold ends up. It will definitely help improve the Pacific side, which would help a ton. Even modest improvements from the Pacific could yield big snows during intense atlantic blocking periods. Even better that this would occur during a favorable snow climo period (mid Jan through mid Feb).
  2. SnoSki14
    The hail mary early Jan event could still work out. It's incredibly marginal but a coastal track is favored right now. I think Euro is way too far inland with this especially since it's coming off the heels of the NY's system which will push the baroclinic forcing east. The NY's system acts as a mini 50/50 as well.
  3. SnoSki14
    But will it actually lead to anything is the question.
  4. SnoSki14
    I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place.
  5. SnoSki14
    Way too early for that. That's a stout block on the ensembles so there's always a chance for something to sneak in. GEFS didn't look too bad. Even a brief relaxation of pacific jet would go a long ways.
  6. SnoSki14
    This December was a lot better than I expected so I'll take it as a win. I'm sure it'll snow again.
  7. SnoSki14
    The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. Very odd to see
  8. SnoSki14
    The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good.
  9. SnoSki14
    Oh good I thought it was just me that thought the new upgrade was trash.
  10. SnoSki14
    If the Nino state is maintained that would have vast repercussions on all those Feb torch forecasts. As of now it looks like the blockiness will carry on. We've seen months of blockiness in the spring/summer months...I wonder if it'll maintain through winter.
  11. SnoSki14
    Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum.
  12. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.
  13. SnoSki14
    I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.
  14. SnoSki14
    If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us.
  15. SnoSki14
    MJO will be moving towards favorable 8-2 phases as well though near the circle. I'd be shocked if we didn't see another major snowstorm by Jan 10.
  16. SnoSki14
    Nam has another inch or so in a few days.
  17. SnoSki14
    Let's hope so that'd be a blast. Very strong wind gusts too, gfs shows legit HWW conditions. Fingers crossed for a flash freeze event Xmas eve
  18. SnoSki14
    I can't believe raindance said that silly statement unless he was referring to the previous system. Still the soil temp idea is pretty ridiculous when it can go from pouring to snow drifts in hours.
  19. SnoSki14
    Is there a side by side of the first image comparing 06Z with 09Z.
  20. SnoSki14
    It just seems odd to me that this storm could be so amped up against a pretty strong nearby high. The low isn't that strong either. Honestly I'd be shocked if the overly amped models didn't start trending south 24-36 hours before the storm hits. I think a Euro/Gfs compromise works best right now.
  21. SnoSki14
    Why are people so quick to dismiss the Gfs? It's one of the best performing models there is. Seems odd to outright throw it out. And gfs does very well in the 3 day timeframe.
  22. SnoSki14
    Really because it trended a lot weaker and further south than a few days ago. The Euro was the first to amp up today's storm but now it looks closer to the Gfs. I don't think people should be quick to dismiss the Gfs in the presence of a strong, cold high not too far north.
  23. SnoSki14
    Definitely. I don't care about playing the jackpot games though. My area had basically nothing last winter so even 6"+ would be a huge win especially in a season where every major forecaster called for a snowless, torch winter.
  24. SnoSki14
    I'd be weary of the overly amped runs too given the strength and placement of the high. Hopefully we all cash in though. I do think the GFS was way too suppressed.
  25. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
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