SnoSki14

It's even easier where I live. All it takes is one big storm to get us to a normal season. I think if last March happened in February, we'd have seen a 40-50"+ month.

If it weren't for all the rain, then the winter thus far would be very pleasant. The lack of bone chilling cold has been lovely. A stunning 60F right now.

Oh no question the effects will linger for a bit. MJO will move into phase 7 by beginning of Jan's second week, but we probably won't see the results of that until the last third of the month. The pattern isn't getting pushed back, it's just that guidance is trying to change things too quickly. We've seen that time and time again in cold & warm weather patterns. Coldest weather of the season should also occur in the Jan 20 to early Feb timeframe.

It's been tied to the MJO since Novie. I buy the the GEFS moving forward because the MJO collapse by the EPS seems highly unlikely, it's been correcting everyday.

It's going to flip constantly, the pattern is chaotic. Models have been flipping like freshly caught tuna. Don't understand the melts, in a few weeks it's going to turn awesome. Jan 20-March 15 will be epic.

Yeah they'll look pretty foolish by March.

MJO will be in phase 7, so much better support than the non event on the 4th. More legit threats should really start revealing themselves soon.

There are multiple variables that would be favorable for us. We'll have peak snow climo, possible SSW impacts, favorable MJO, back-loaded Nino climo, and let's not forget the active weather pattern in our favor. That might lead to several KU events from late Jan through mid March.

I expect we'll see multiple KU events from late Jan through mid March. At least one widespread 20"+ event possible.

Your winter forecast thus far has worked out quite well. Yes it's unfortunate that we missed the early December storm but those are the breaks. December will end up anywhere from +1 to +2 AN, which all things considered isn't that bad for today's climate and for a Nino Dec.

I see the meltdowns have started. The MJO is moving and it'll get into the more favorable phases soon. Pattern change isn't getting pushed back, it's just that people are wanting it to change faster than expected. Believe it or not things do remain on track for a 1/20 change, possibly with an Archambault event of some sort. But if things do turn rotten then it's out of our hands and will serve as an important learning experience. It's hard to get angry when the last 20 years have been some of the snowiest on record.

The GEFS/EPS are going to keep flip flopping day to day, so it is what it is. The MJO should move into phase 7 pretty quickly once we enter the new year. It may be there by Jan 5-7. It's a high amplitude MJO so I don't buy it getting stuck in phase 7 or even looping as one model suggests. Regardless, phase 7 is a hell of a lot better than 5/6 and models will eventually reflect that. The 3/4 system looks like either a missed phase or a cutter, never bought into it. Pattern doesn't support a snowstorm right now.

Very ugly Pacific pattern, firehose Pacific puke jet with no sign of it ending on Euro Op. Looks like a Nina.

Euro OP says, "what incoming pattern change". Endless Pacific puke but hey at least the Jan 3/4 looks a little better so progress?

I favor the Ukmet/Euro, the phase 5/6 MJO is very unfavorable for a snowstorm.

It wasn't very good, however given the chaotic nature of the pattern right now, I expect a lot of changes from run to run. It's also very possible that most of the area sees nothing through mid Jan or later. The picture will become a lot clearer in 10 days.

Really shows how chaotic things are with the MJO/SOI/SSW. Something is bound to happen eventually, mid to late month remains the target. Until then I'd be lying if I said I didn't enjoy days like today. The relatively mild weather, when it doesn't rain, has been nice, it's so much better than the brutal cold from last year.

Models don't look as atrocious post NYE cutter particularly those north of 41N, climo helps. It they could improve just a bit more then there would probably be something to talk about. Just gotta get the MJO to phase 7 and things will look a lot better.

It certainly has the hallmarks of a big time ratter. I don't see a 14/15 repeat, the Pacific looks far more hostile this year. Last night's EPS/GEFS runs were not very good heading into mid January.

Feb and Dec 2015 were very unsettling because they were extreme outlier months in less than a year's time.

That Jan 3rd threat almost looks like a repeat of early December on some of the models. Imagine how this place would get if the SE got another big hit.

The rain has really added to the misery. The missed opportunity that slammed the SE also hurt. In 2015 we knew December would be atrocious. I'll take a massive torch with less rain than one with some opportunities that was excessively wet, not white.

Up to 60F with light rain, one of the worst Decembers ever. The rains have been relentless. Even SNE has little to show for it.

Highly doubt it, Pacific jet is raging. Looks like a full blown Nina. This is starting to remind me of the bad winters where the models kept pushing back the pattern.

I'm guessing that's probably wrong, Euro has it too but of course it's a rainstorm. MJO would be entering phase 6 by then, which is unfavorable for snows.