SnoSki14

First weenie Gfs run of the year?

It looks like after the moderation period (1/13-1/19) things dramatically improve. Actually going to get some cold later this week, haven't seen that in a while.

Things divulge greatly after day 5 between the two GFS models. Speaking of which, isn't the Gfs about to get replaced soon.

Last month's SE storm kept targeting that area several days before it hit. Not all LR jackpots are bad. Not exactly the same setup so I see what you mean. We'll see in a few days, early thoughts are that it targets southern regions.

If the Pacific jet doesn't relax then it will. Not a problem for Europe though, effects of SSWE are now unfolding for them. They'll get the cold/snow right now. A brief break in the poor Pacific pattern may end up helping the SE, I believe we saw something similar in 72/73. Very strong high over the region favors SE up to DC. For everyone else it remains to be seen whether the very bad Pacific will improve in 2 weeks. If it doesn't then we're probably looking at a Feb 07 route.

That would most likely be a SE/Mid-Atlantic storm, there's no way this would get further north with such a stout high over New England.

The Pacific jet is the big question mark. If it continues to roar without any signs of it relaxing, then you might be right. Though even then I think the Nino influences would try to override it and we get a very cold Feb a la 06/07. So yeah I'm currently split between a 14/15 and 06/07 back-end.

Europe for now has been benefitting from the SSWE, and we'll likely have to wait our turn. But if the winter never turns then it wouldn't be the first time, all or nothing winters are very common. It's recently happened in 11/12, 07/08, 01/02, 97/98 and so forth. It does seem that once the pattern is set, it's very hard to break whether that be cold/snowy or warm/wet. However sometimes you get multiple forces that turn the pattern either very early like 10/11, 89/90 or much later like 14/15, 17/18.

MJO isn't going towards 5, models have it in the COD. After a some cold this week, things will moderate for a bit before a more sustained cold pattern develops. The 14-20th period will be milder but then the 21st onward will likely turn colder again.

Good thing it's a piece of crap model.

Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFS are correcting to more troughiness/colder not in the 10+ day range but in the short to middle ranges, which are far more accurate. This is very much due to the recent SOI plunge and MJO progression into phase 7/8. The chance of seeing some snow during the 2nd week of Jan is pretty good IMO. I expect these corrections to continue for LR forecasts as well unless the MJO somehow returns to phase 5/6 (unlikely given effects from SSWE, Modoki Nino influences by then). I'm not saying it'll necessarily be a sustained cold/stormy pattern (that will happen late Jan/Feb), but it could offer some opportunities and chillier weather than we've been used to.

I think a dry pattern is highly unlikely. Even when the pattern turns colder, we'll likely still be dealing with the Pacific jet as well as the classic Nino southern stream/subtropical jet. SSWE are also quite stormy once they get propagate down to the troposphere (see last March).

We should see a more classic Nino response soon, guidance is starting to pick up on it as well.

That's why I would be utterly stunned if this winter ends up being a complete ratter. There are too many positive developments heading forward. Like I've said before, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw 2+ KU events between Jan 20 and March 15. I think at worst we're looking at a colder version of 06/07.

Could turn into a sneaky event, MJO should be in phase 7 by then, much more favorable for snows than 5/6. I'd still favor SNE/CNE though.

It's only troubling for weenies, most of the general public is thrilled. The lack of bitter cold has been really nice. And we've been skunked before all or nothing style. Will this year become another 11/12 or 97/98, I don't think so, but we've had a good run recently and a poor winter wouldn't be surprising.

Still interested in the 8th, east based -NAO continues to trend stronger on Gfs. Could be a redeveloper, SNE and especially CNE look to benefit the most right now.

It'll probably lead to another huge March.

East based -NAO trending stronger on guidance. Could turn more interesting if trends continue. Maybe a snow to rain scenario if we're lucky. Odds probably 20% right now of any snow.

Is there any comparisons to those years right now. The wet weather reminds me of 97/98.

It would be something if it didn't snow at all for met winter. Have we ever seen a winter where Dec-March was shut out. I guess 11/12 would be the closest.

Really not biting on anything solid until after mid-month. It'll be tough even in SNE.

The MJO is moving, it'll be in phase 7 in less than a week. They'll probably be some lag before we see the effects of it, but I feel good about the winter pattern post 1/20. Pretty much every Nino this decade has been back-loaded, I fully expect the same this year. It's not hard to get AN snow totals either in a short time frame, it's happened frequently the past two decades. Delayed not denied this season.

The EPS is wrong, high amplitude MJO pattern doesn't support it just dying out like that. I think it'll get stuck or slow down in phase 7/8 and then move from there. Here's something interesting, did you know that sometimes when the models show warmth in the long range they may end up being wrong. Seriously why does everyone assume it's correct.

If all you care about is snowfall, which most on here do, then all it takes is 1-2 big storms to get us to normal/AN. That can easily be achieved in 6 weeks. Would I prefer for this to occur from mid December to mid Feb, sure, but what can you do.