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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The latest update doesn't even take it into phase 5. It spends a few days at phase 6 (low amplitude) as it circles towards 7/8. Personally I don't think it'll leave the COD until it circles back into 8/1 like in 2015.
  2. SnoSki14
    That's the biggest question mark for me. If the PV does trend south then we're looking at a gradient type of system, perhaps even a SWFE depending on its positioning. There's a lot of cold bleeding south.
  3. SnoSki14
    Euro also looked like hot garbage. I think a cutter is inevitable, pattern out west still looks very poor.
  4. SnoSki14
    Lack of a PNA may cause it to round the base too early aka cut and give us a wind driven rain with arctic air/flash freezes behind it. That's what I think will happen at least. I think it'll be the catalyst that'll drive the pattern forward but it won't be the big snowmaker we've been looking for.
  5. SnoSki14
    Very pretty evolution, almost textbook for something big.
  6. SnoSki14
    I don't understand the negativity, there's some nice potential 2nd half of Jan. And it'll get even better in Feb. A lot of cold air around too. Would not surprise me to see another Feb 03 storm with the gradient.
  7. SnoSki14
    I do not see cold & dry at all. Pattern looks very active, we may see several gradient type events. Very cold air nearby. I think a heavy snowfall event or two is highly likely before the month ends. It'll get even better in Feb.
  8. SnoSki14
    At least there's cold around. Peak cold is only 10 days away now with peak snow climo about 20 days away. Tick tock.
  9. SnoSki14
    Crazy how VA is about to get smacked with another 6-8" of snow this weekend.
  10. SnoSki14
    I think that's reasonable, the gradient with the northern stream has enough juice to deliver some snow. Really nice hit as the low matures down in VA/MD maybe even to S NJ.
  11. SnoSki14
    If winter's gonna suck then give me 50s and 60s everyday.
  12. SnoSki14
    Good chance they're cutters. Warm/wet to cold/dry, rinse & repeat.
  13. SnoSki14
    If it weren't for Novie, then this winter would be right up there with 97/98, 01/02, and 11/12. It would take a tremendous amount of bad luck for us to get skunked the rest of the way.
  14. SnoSki14
    If we get to Feb 5 without a flake then it won't be a good year. However all it takes is one huge storm to turn things around.
  15. SnoSki14
    At least someone's benefitting from all this.
  16. SnoSki14
    It won't. I don't understand how people can't see the pattern change, it's clear as day. Case in point, today's MJO forecasts are fully in the COD and do not emerge near Phase 5/6. +PNA/-AO to stay.
  17. SnoSki14
    Northern stream will still likely deliver some snow even if there's no phasing.
  18. SnoSki14
    I think a moderate event is definitely on the table. Even a little bit of phasing could potentially lead to a 4-6" type event.
  19. SnoSki14
    MJO forecasts have it pretty much stay in the COD and then slowly rotate towards phase 7/8, very 2015 esque. Low amplitude all the way. Brilliant look on the GEFS, our snow drought will likely come to a halt soon. IMO February will deliver multiple KU events and will make a lot of these posts look silly.
  20. SnoSki14
    Looks like a moderate event is still on the table. Euro was correcting the PNA ridge further west. A nice bonus before the main action would really quelm the fears around here.
  21. SnoSki14
    The Euro is too slow yet again with ejecting this out and that makes a huge difference. It has trended better with the PNA out west.
  22. SnoSki14
    Not gonna cut with that massive banana high overhead. Biggest risk is suppression, I believe it's a Mid-Atlantic special but a lot of time for changes. Big precip shield possible though.
  23. SnoSki14
    Would love to see the Euro on board tonight. Regardless I think the tellies look pretty good for a storm. MJO should be at phase 8/1. Neutral NAO, AO dip, rising PNA. Nice cold banana high as well. The biggest question mark is whether or not the confluence will be too strong. Could still end up being a Mid-Atlantic hit with more fringe effects around NYC.
  24. SnoSki14
    I find it interesting how everyone is always ready to dismiss a storm when it shows up on guidance. However I too feel this will end up further south or won't end up as amped as shown. On the other hand the MJO will be finally be favorable, so I'm more intrigued than before.
  25. SnoSki14
    I think when the pattern does click it'll really click. Could see a March 2018 solution for late Jan/February with multiple storms.
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