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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The jackpot will be further south than what the models have right now (not sure by how much yet). No bias, just see the PV going to push this further down. Friday's system will also be a catalyst that will cause the arctic boundary to move south as colder, drier air infiltrates from Canada.
  2. SnoSki14
    If Fridays event is strong enough then it would shift the boundary south for Sunday.
  3. SnoSki14
    The exact track will really differentiate who gets snow vs. sleet. Boundary temps may be very cold throughout. EPS looks good and I don't think it'll change too much in the end. Ensembles do well with big storms even as far as a week out (example being SE storm in Dec).
  4. SnoSki14
    It may actually trend south a bit with that PV pressing down. There's been a decent south trend so far this season.
  5. SnoSki14
    PV really pressing on this, there could be some hefty snow totals for those on the right side of the gradient. This will have a very hard time cutting north, and we haven't exactly seen a north trend this season. If anything it's been a south one.
  6. SnoSki14
    Seeing the Euro of all models show that is concerning.
  7. SnoSki14
    It would be spectacular if we went the rest of the season without any snow while other areas got hammered.
  8. SnoSki14
    Gfs has redevelopment further SE. I think that's possible given the strength of the polar air to the north. I think a snow/sleet event is on the table too.
  9. SnoSki14
    In and around the immediate NYC metro. And that's remarkable, the best I've seen was low 20s with light freezing rain.
  10. SnoSki14
    There's a pretty good chance this ends up being a general frontal passage with a lot of rain/mixed precip out ahead of it and bitter cold behind it. However the icing scenarios are equally possible. You have a massive supply of low level cold that's being pushed southward against a would be cutter and an ample moisture supply.
  11. SnoSki14
    Because that's never happened in this region and although it's physically possible, it's an extreme case particularly in this area. Most likely case would be a rain to arctic cold system, sleet storm, or a much warmer freezing rain event.
  12. SnoSki14
    Well I don't think we'll see freezing rain with single digits temperatures.
  13. SnoSki14
    Models are trending toward a snowier scenario, could put down a few inches. Next weekend's system will be really interesting. There's so much cold bleeding south that it could easily press that system further south and/or keep low level temps cold. Of course given our luck this year, everything could bust and we're still looking at no snowfall or frozen by Jan 22/23.
  14. SnoSki14
    Tomorrow does look kinda interesting. The fact that some moisture is coming from the northern stream tonight is a good indicator that precip will be further north than forecast tomorrow with the coastal.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yes but at least the Mid-Atlantic will get snow, they're always the ones that get skunked.
  16. SnoSki14
    Last minute trends shift the polar love further and further away. Could definitely see a little snow. Really nice event for S NJ.
  17. SnoSki14
    There's a small wave before the bigger storm next week that could be a significant player, it may even deliver some snow/mixed precip. The stronger the first wave, the more likely the 20th storm would be further south and less prone to cutting. GEFS looked excellent. Many, many opportunities if the 20th system doesn't work out. The dam is about to burst, all signs point to significant snow before the month ends.
  18. SnoSki14
    No that's why models are showing somewhat of a relaxation after the 1/20 storm for a few days. Doesn't look warm though and the PNA looks to amplify shortly after like Isotherm said. Last week of Jan has tons of potential. The 1/20 could also work out for us.
  19. SnoSki14
    No it isn't, very low amplitude MJO that cycles through 5/6 for a few days. I'm not sure it even gets out of COD. Not worried about it.
  20. SnoSki14
    Well this current storm was supposed to affect most of the northeast and now it's barely hitting the Mid-Atlantic states. Same thing could happen next weekend. There's a ton of cold air that will prevent the storm from trying to cut, but of course it depends on the PV. If it's further north then it'll cut further north like the Gfs shows. Luckily the Gfs has been far from accurate lately.
  21. SnoSki14
    If everything turns out to be a bust then it may be the biggest blunder since at least 01/02, and remember that modeling was far less advanced back then.
  22. SnoSki14
    PV will be key here. I too wouldn't be so sure it'll be that far south.
  23. SnoSki14
    I think 1/20 storm will be the last setback before things get good. But yeah it'll be really hard for those amounts to verify unless we have another killer March, which I doubt.
  24. SnoSki14
    This winter has been easy to swallow given it hasn't even started yet. If it busts then it busts. We learn from it and move on, what else can you do.
  25. SnoSki14
    Very weak sauce and chances are it won't get out of the circle until it circles back. That's very 2015 esque.
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