SnoSki14

Yeah now models are bringing back the blocking after prematurely showing it quickly going away. This should keep April on the cooler side relative to normal especially vs Jan-Feb anomalies.

We've seen 90s in April before so agree.

Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.

My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.

Wow was that well thought out. Good luck this season, hopefully it verifies a little more optimistic than you have particularly further south.

Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.

And the Earth is flat too.

That statement is idiotic. And literally every scientist on the planet agrees that we are the cause but do enlighten us. And Don please don't even waste your time.

Wrong again or should we remove the past couple days from the data set too.

Southern spots possibly though models have been trending weaker with any heat potential. Only see low 80s in my forecast.

And today was the last of the 90s until next year.

Wrong again

2012 was essentially an anomalous year due to the great Arctic cyclone. This year maintained the status quo but it'll be more interesting to see what happens next year. The last few years had horrible ice recoveries vs the early 2010s and this year should be no different. A very poor recovery could lead to a new record next year.

The good news is that the ice hasn't been able to beat the last record low from 7 years ago. Which could mean an ice free summer Arctic probably won't happen until the end of the 21st century.

I stopped giving a rats ass about those people, they're as repugnant as anti-vaxxers or flat-earthers though having said trolls lead gov't is quite terrifying. Still even the most scientifically scholared gov'ts don't mind turning their back on what they know to be true. So at this point it's a big waiting game. Will we innovate ourselves out of GW or will GW shut us down permanently.

I didn't think the blocking would go away. This pattern's stuck for the long haul with some shifting every now & then.

I don't know, it seems the closer we get the more blocking starts to show up. The current warming, ice melt could even help enhance blocking.

These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised. Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep.

And you lost. Upcoming pattern looks brutal for Arctic, and if this pattern lasts through the summer like I think it will, then 2012 could go down the tubes.

The upcoming pattern is an absolute ice destroyer, massive blocking high over the Arctic. Extent will plummet late June into July. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

The ice has gotten battered due to a very unfavorable May/June, and the pattern is only projected to get worse as renewed blocking develops. I expect a cliff dive in sea ice next couple weeks.

What's with all the dry outlooks, I haven't seen anything thus far that would lead to that outcome.

I think a near Cat 5 at the FL panhandle will win the prize this year.