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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I like what the Ukie is showing. Much more strung out makes sense here.
  2. SnoSki14
    The ridging effects from the MJO are clear as day for the system on the 20th and the following one on the 24/25. There are other influences that will negate the warming effects of the typical phase 5/6 but when it comes down to the storms, it's a net negative. And yeah the 11-15 looks great but it has always looked great and in the grand scheme of things it makes no difference until that pattern can manifest itself in much shorter intervals.
  3. SnoSki14
    That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.
  4. SnoSki14
    Just amazing, it's been two months since I've had a measurable snowfall and there's nothing on the horizon. Yet living in NJ that's not unheard of versus good ole Boston. As of Jan 15 this is easily in my top 5 most awful winters, it's been like a colder, wetter version of 11/12.
  5. SnoSki14
    Looks like the arctic shot is a given. Wasn't expecting Euro to be this awful though.
  6. SnoSki14
    Best case scenario would be if this unfolded like the March 2014 storms where the snow swath shifted some 4-500 miles south only 2/3 days before the storm hit. If you don't remember, our area was supposed to see major snows that month but instead the PV press caused the low and precip to shift south all the way into Virginia.
  7. SnoSki14
    That cold is something else, but probably overdone. At this point you'd want the first wave to be amped up so that a secondary can deliver some snows. Some flash freeze potential for sure.
  8. SnoSki14
    We've seen significant southern PV presses in the past, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. There were a couple of March storms a few years ago where the snow swath shifted like 400-500 miles south from SNE/N. Mid-Atlantic to Virginia 48-60 hrs before the event began.
  9. SnoSki14
    And only 12/13 short days away. I'll get my snow blower ready.
  10. SnoSki14
    Ah yes the 11-15, I think my house would be buried by now if we used those progs.
  11. SnoSki14
    I'm looking on tropical tidbits, the depiction on there is pretty clear.
  12. SnoSki14
    Day 8-10 EPS shows ridging in the east, trough in central US. On a positive note, at least the Pacific jet gets shut down. However we'll really need that -NAO blocking to benefit otherwise it'll be wet to Arctic cold, rinse & repeat.
  13. SnoSki14
    We've been in a thaw since mid November.
  14. SnoSki14
    Euro dumps a trough out west late Jan with a nice eastern ridge. There goes our epic pattern change. Cutters galore.
  15. SnoSki14
    Oh yeah for sure. The final solution will depend on two things, a stronger/weaker ridge out west and the location/strength of the PV. I'm on the ice train for now.
  16. SnoSki14
    If that PV stays in place, surface temps won't get out of the 20s. Models warm up surface temps way too quickly in these setups.
  17. SnoSki14
    Hasn't it been showing that for several days now. Has it ever not been outside 300 hours.
  18. SnoSki14
    This screams ice to me. Ordinarily this would cut straight through but the PV will crush the system as it tries to amplify. It'll probably redevelop offshore. Under this scenario you could see strong mid-level warming and surface temps in the 20s. Dangerous set-up if realized, I'd rather see the Canadian if that's the case.
  19. SnoSki14
    Horrible, give me a warm 11/12 winter then if we're not gonna snow. Hopefully the models continue to modify the cold behind it.
  20. SnoSki14
    Can we make the rest of this horrendous winter 60°
  21. SnoSki14
    It'll probably be like an 80s winter. Trough axis ends up too far west but there's still the polar influence to the north. This equals wet to cold, rinse & repeat. The only thing to offset that would be -NAO blocking. It's something the GEFS keeps showing 10+ days out only to fall apart as we get closer.
  22. SnoSki14
    What I'm seeing moving forward is really bad for the rest of winter. It really looks like the MJO will be a repeat of 2nd half Dec/early Jan and that's terrible news. The Nino is also dying out with very little effects on our pattern. If there's no snow by Feb 5 with nothing on the immediate horizon then this winter is a wrap.
  23. SnoSki14
    It just doesn't want to snow. I think if we get to Feb 5 without any snowfall and none on the horizon then I'll probably give up. The pattern just isn't clicking the way it was supposed to. The models trending towards a stronger MJO 5/6 pulse last few days was incredibly discouraging. Latest MJO looks like a repeat of late Dec/early Jan but at a lower amplitude. Nino effects are almost non-existent. It's nothing like 2015.
  24. SnoSki14
    You can see the unfavorable MJO influences on the ensembles in the LR. Trough west/center with some east coast ridging as MJO traverses phase 5/6 for a few days. No negative effects from the MJO for the 20th storm though as it stays in the COD.
  25. SnoSki14
    No sense in getting riled up right now. I'll check back in 5 days, final track won't change that much from the Gfs/EPS imo. Canadian is an awful model.
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