SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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More flash freeze potential from the Gfs. Don't know how that will work out, often things dry out before it gets cold enough for that to happen.
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The tellies look so meh to me. Not much of a -NAO, AO is less negative than a few days ago, PNA is okay, MJO is not very favorable on the plot above. The Euro one looks a lot better. It certainly doesn't scream big time snowy pattern.
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Something like the Nam would be good for us, it keeps surface temps below freezing for the duration of the storm with a lot of sleet/ice. The Nam is a much better tool for temperatures than the Gfs in these cases.
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You can see some of that CAD on the Canadian over in MD/PA. At least the GFS/GGEM weren't more amped this time. Best models, Ukie & Euro to come. If those two keep amping things up then it's probably a wrap.
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I think we'll be okay on the FRZ front unless models shift dramatically less amped tomorrow/Friday. However had the preceding airmass been 5-10 degrees colder then we'd have a crippling ice storm.
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Well I personally think a lot of people will be disappointed including those in SNE. It'll probably just be another heavy rainstorm for us. The one after will def be all rain too and then maybe the pattern will get better.
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I can't take the Nam seriously outside 48 hrs, let's wait for the better models.
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January 2019 General Discussion & Observations
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Tomorrow's the day that you wanna see better changes. As of now I don't buy the big ice storm threat because of the airmass ahead of it. So my only hope is that models trend towards a weaker, southern system. My preliminary guess is that we'll see some mixed precip/snow ahead of the system, then 40s and rain, and finally cold & dry with temps in the teens. Ice will be confined to 30-40 miles north of the city. -
Enjoy your snows, maybe next winter will be better down here.
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The redevelopment would be interesting, that would definitely hold the low level cold in place vs. more of a FROP.
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Do you know the final results, snow vs. rain, amounts?
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Fair enough, I'll wait for the Ukie/Euro to disappoint me. I think we would see more ZR/FRZ if the antecedent airmass was colder but right now it may just be a quick rain to snow solution.
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Almost nobody saw more snow since November in SNE. The climate of SNE vs. CNE/NNE is also drastically different but yet people still post here.
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I could really do without 2-3" of rain followed by arctic cold, it doesn't get more miserable than that.
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Agreed it's a bad look. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if November's storm was the only snow this season.
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I'll enjoy my rainstorms.
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And we're back to a rainstorm. Probably a fluke run last night.
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You'd be surprised how quickly things can change. The north trend has been absent so far this season.
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If the models are correct with that 500mb depiction then we'll see further south shifts. Those March 2014 storms shifted substantially further south as we got closer just from the PV confluence.
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No phase with PV means this is gonna get squashed by it.
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Wow the Gfs is a classic flash freeze scenario.
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That's a big move, first one I've seen from the Gfs in a while. Will be interesting to see if the Ukie holds.
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I meant it'll be a copy for non-snow events. Cold & snow are two separate things. The cold will also comes in once the MJO swings past phase 6.
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Widespread frigid airmass is likely for 70% of the CONUS end of Jan. The PV may even visit the states directly. Very 1980s.
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I'm not really impressed with the CAD, antecedent airmass is pretty marginal. Unless the Thursday system really digs and brings colder air in, then I don't believe the CAD will hold very long. Subsequently the stronger the Thursday system is and the more it amplifies, the more likely the next one would end up further south.
