SnoSki14

Fair enough, my apologies.

All I ask is people own that this won't be the pattern that was promised weeks ago that's all. This is not a hit against anyone's knowledge. Meltdown over. Please feel free to delete all these posts.

Temps mostly steady at 15F however another push of CAA should start to arrive after midnight and cause a fairly precipitous drop until 7am.

19F currently before 7PM. Just a few degrees away from beating November's lowest temperature.

Some places are already 30F lower than this morning. 24F now, I hear the winds howling.

This winter has been one big FU from mother nature. Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Now I'm about 6 weeks away from it being the most disappointing, atrocious winter ever. If it wasn't for tonight's cold, November would still lead for the snowiest month with the coldest temps of the season. Just awful.

Be happy you got anything, I'm about a month away from declaring the November event as the biggest one of the season.

I think so.

28F now, stronger temp drops once the sun goes down. HRRR is really cold.

Colder air is gradually coming in, starting to see dews in the teens in Western NJ. Winds should really ramp up in a few hours as colder air filters in.

Sustained cold is a given with the PV meandering along the southern Hudson. In fact it'll be enough to give us a negative temperature departure this month. The problem I guess will be whether the cold and snow can align. I think it will in the form of clippers and Miller B storms as they'll be plenty of arctic blocking with bouts of strong Pacific blocking. Models/ensembles show BN temps with plenty of snow chances in the next 2 weeks. If we get to March 15 and nothing happens then you can talk but we have another 6 weeks to go minimum.

If the PV meanders in Hudson bay and the MJO causes some SE ridging, then you'll have a ton of clippers and Miller Bs coming down the pike. Miller Bs are usually good those north of 40°N.

Okay we'll see I guess. Whatever happens, happens. Not every winter is going to score. A lot of 80s & 90s winters were just like this year. Personally I think I'm done on here until there's something legitimate to track.

Yeah those 45-55F progs were exaggerated. Too bad, I was hoping to go from 50s into singles within 24 hrs. 38F right now, HRRR suggests low 40s still possible but it's been trending cooler last few runs.

If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb. PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually.

We may see a squall line come through early tomorrow with strong winds, lightning & thunder. Low will be intensifying as it crossing over us, sub 990mb.

That could end up being more than people bargained for. The 24 hr temperature whiplash will also be impressive. Could go from 50s to below zero wind-chill.

It's a balmy 37/28 right now and way too much salt everywhere. It's so odd how everyone I talked to is expecting some big snowstorm, the media really hyped this up for no reason.

It looks fine to me, latest Euro was really nice for us and I just need it cold enough to snow. Who cares about arctic cold otherwise. You don't necessarily need the MJO in those phases, you just want it to stay absent which is what is progged to happen.

There was no hope in my area that year and it was much warmer, which was awesome. If it won't snow then give me 50s & 60s please. I've been loving all the melts this year. People are complaining about one season when the 20-30 year snowfall average has been the highest in decades.

All MJO forecasts pretty much have the MJO rotting in the circle or at a very low amplitude. The influence by February is almost non-existent so that by Jan 26 it's a non factor.

I think we'll get something from a few Miller Bs, that seems like the pattern depicted on the ensembles. As Bluewave pointed out, the 2010s have been an all or nothing decade with little snow in the first half of the season and heavy snows after Jan 15 especially in Nino seasons.

Temperatures are above freezing for most areas with dews in the upper teens already. A good indicator that there's no arctic air present.

So much for that arctic high keeping things frozen. Models just keep tick, tick, ticking warmer. How about that Rgem too.

Pattern looks very good a week from today and could last 6-8 weeks. MJO influence collapses and the Pacific jet goes away. Also Jan's temperature departures could drop to 0 or even BN with the cold shots coming through.