SnoSki14

That's if the MJO continues to progress, some have it reversing back to phase 6. Others keep it at a high amplitude and have it moving through 7+. Hopefully that's correct. It's all about the optics. 80% of forecasts I saw back in Oct/Nov/Dec had well AN snows for the northeast. And you had all the right ingredients in place for that to happen. So to go from that and see that 18/19 now ranks at the bottom of the snowfall list for this decade is a huge misstep. But what's even worse was that Dec/Jan were not warm months (Jan could end up normal) and precip has been well AN for both. It's not like 97/98 where we saw blowtorch months. And yeah we've had a ton of bad luck too because many areas in the SE/Mid-Atlantic have considerably more snowfall than this region, which only piles on the frustration. It's a perfect storm of suck that I haven't experienced with any winter before.

As of Jan 28, Raindancewx's forecast has verified the best. A good lesson that people shouldn't be so dismissive of a forecast because it doesn't show you what you want. Still 6 weeks to go, will be interesting to see if it holds.

Nice, the Euro gives me about 2". Pair that with the cold and it may feel wintry for a few days.

Temperatures over the past few days have been verifying warmer than forecast. 50F right now, forecast was 45F. It's a pretty easy forecast actually. Lack of Atlantic blocking plus powerful Pacific jet will yield rainstorms & milder weather. This looks solid through mid Feb when MJO hovers near phase 6/7 with lag effects. A window will probably open up for 2-3 weeks from mid Feb to early March but only if the MJO can get to phase 8. I see no evidence of a -NAO anytime soon. I think it'll take tremendous luck to get an advisory event or better unless there's a radical change in the weather pattern. I do think 1-3" inches over the next 6 weeks is possible. The Arctic front itself this week could drop an inch. NYC may crack 10".

I was kidding though admittedly it's a funny coincidence that this year and 2011 had early snowfalls and not much afterwards.

Pacific jet is raging through that entire run. If that's true then Feb departures will be greater than Dec or Jan. I'm never gonna root for an early snowfall again.

I'll bump my post in 6 weeks. It's not trolling, I'm very confident the snow is pretty much done. Take a look at the 12z Gfs op, it has a full scale Pacific jet roaring through mid February. If that verifies then Feb will be warmer than both Dec & Jan.

I'm pretty confident we see almost zero additional snowfall for Feb & March. Pattern is locked in, stable, and we know what to expect. If we're lucky maybe we'll add 1-3" from dustings and light coatings but I do think this winter, snow wise, is pretty much over.

I think it will. Dec-Jan haven't exactly been blowtorch months and I expect Feb to be subdued in the temp department too. At the very least I don't expect expect another torch like the last two years especially in a Nino.

Enjoy the snow feast. You've got a five course gourmet meal and don't have to share it with nobody.

I don't live in SNJ and I'm in SW CT right now for a few months. I wish I lived in the Mid-Atlantic this year they had a lot more snow than most up here. Models have a light accumulation due to the Arctic front, so I'm not denying that won't happen.

It's called reality. As of now the only area targeted is NNE. Could it trend better and impact other zones, sure, but that's not the case right now. Hell of a winter though in parts of NNE, it really is like 07/08 adjusted north.

The Nam is garbage outside 48 hrs. This doesn't look good for anyone outside NNE, CNE is close.

Turns out the Gfs was onto something with this potential event, so maybe it's not garbage after all. Alternatively any model that screws us this year is probably right.

So if those aren't the right analogs, then which ones would you use. So he may be right for the wrong reasons then.

I mean we have to count the November snows but it'll definitely be up there with winters like 97/98, 01/02, 07/08, and 11/12. However when you factor in the bouts of high precip and arctic temps that didn't produce anything plus all those optimistic forecasts, then it feels a lot worse than those winters. Granted it's still Jan 26 so there's still a ways to go.

It's a high amplitude MJO so there's a good chance it'll get to phase 8 by mid February. I think we'll get a 2-3 week window where something can still happen after Feb 10. I'm not expecting a repeat of last March though Nino's in the past have been known to produce late winter.

Is everyone going to ignore the fact that the GEFS/EPS have eastern ridging with AN heights from Feb 2-10. The Pacific in particular looks like a disaster with a raging jet re-emerging.

We need substantial southward adjustments. So far it mainly looks like a New England threat.

I think the coldest wind chill I experienced was -25, I can't imagine -65. Brutal.

Shutdown related? I don't recall the Gfs being this bad last year.

I'm surprised how vastly different the solutions are given the close range.

Gfs says...what storm? Pretty much just a cold front with some snow showers preceding the Arctic air. I wonder who will be the victor.

It's a lot more interesting than any of the other models, doesn't mean anything will come from it though.

Wow is the Gfs op spewing pure garbage. Things are gonna get ugly real fast if it ends up being right.