SnoSki14

All of those forecasts have been all over the place. If the MJO goes to phase 8-1 then I expect the AO to correct with it.

You know it's not good to have anomalous warmth this early. Early warm temperatures can trigger the growing season before it's time, which makes freezes far more damaging. It's something that will grow more common in the future. Our climate is quickly losing its stable nature.

Man this winter really beat you down huh.

Massive divergence between the EPS/GEFS in the LR, not surprising given their MJO states. I really hope the EPS is correct here.

A strong -EPO counteracts the -PNA. It can also introduce 50/50 like confluence in the absence of a true -AO/NAO. 2M maps are mostly garbage, temps can easily be above or below them based on the pattern. You don't need big cold for snow, Jan had plenty of big cold but nothing happened, last few years had a lot of mild air but we got plenty of snow. Closest analog I see to the upcoming pattern is Feb 1969, which had a strong -EPO/PNA pattern however that year had more Atlantic blocking so we'll have to see if that shows up as we get closer to phase 8. Again this could all go kaput if the forecasts are incorrect.

Probably means we'll see a KU soon, that's been the theme for years now. It's a false flag if MJO forecasts are correct. Probably won't happen that way, there's too much cold up north and models are indicating a phase 8 pattern (cold). I'm still gonna wait and see what happens next few days. MJO forecasts haven't been very accurate all season. If I see them delay the phase 8 transition, then you'll probably be correct.

Not surprised, it's gone gong ho with MJO 8-1 now starting the 11th. Looks more and more legit though caution is warranted. This week is more or less our January thaw.

We might make 70 by Friday.

Definitely but I think other places may see it too. I feel many places will get to 65 or better Friday, 850 temps are through the roof.

Another 50+ degree drop is possible from there to the weekend.

They look good. The pattern will probably start to respond if they keep it up. EPS would still be the winner here.

It matches its MJO progression, so it's quite favorable after Feb 10.

I don't think we'll see a +PNA, looks mostly -EPO driven with eventual Atlantic blocking. Best case it ends up like Feb 1969. A higher amplitude phase 8-1 would be ideal, so I'm rooting for the EPS.

I feel this will be a common theme with highs well above forecast temps. The only time this doesn't apply is during Arctic outbreaks and BDCF.

Someone in another thread made an argument that normal Nino MJO phases wouldn't apply in a winter without Nino forcing. Or at the very least it wouldn't have as much of an impact.

Yes but we have to take into account the lag times. The EPS has the fastest progression to phase 8 (Feb 11), the others don't get there till the 16/17th, so we may not even see the results until last week of Feb.

Absolutely horrid pattern shown by the ensembles particularly the GEFS last night. Probably 60s well into New England on more than one occasion, a lot of rain, plenty of eastern ridging. It would take a miracle to turn this sinking ship around.

Gfs actually shows the possibility of 70s first half of Feb, the 06z op showed record warmth. Another top 5 warmest Feb?

I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven. Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7).

Don't fall into this trap but do keep an eye on the MJO forecasts. If the EPS MJO is correct then there'll be hope for a wintry window, however we know how erratic these forecasts have been to date. Best to take it day by day.

EPS MJO would definitely unlock a wintry window. It has a relatively high amplitude MJO entering phase 8 by the 11th, an increase from yesterday. Would love for this to be correct. The other ones try to go there too but they linger in phase 7 for way too long.

Correct though his overall analog set was a lot more reasonable. The +SOI way back in December ended up foreshadowing the Nina influences. The MJO also told the story, its progression lined up perfectly with what we saw this winter. Even its brief journey into phase 8 resulted in a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.

A good learning experience? Raindancewx's forecast was excellent though, it crushed JB's and DT's forecasts, and pretty much everyone else.

He's not the brightest. His whole global cooling, east coast hurricane thing is getting old.

I hope so, let this disaster of a winter burn and have it take all those snowy forecasts with them. Nothing this winter reminded me of a Nino, at best it was a Nina hybrid and now Feb looks like a full Nina. It's been the most unusual winter I've ever seen. I don't think it fits into any analog group.