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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This is a winterlike airmass so I disagree. You just need a good track at least with this system. We've seen much worse airmasses mid-winter.
  2. SnoSki14
    Euro was too slow with the pattern shift on 10/31-11/2 and the GFS was too fast by like 1-2 days. It's possible we may see the same timing issues play out here. I wouldn't discount snow right now.
  3. SnoSki14
    I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it.
  4. SnoSki14
    Yes, first low is on the frontal boundary and the second is the one heading NE from the gulf which needs to amplify for us to see a snow event.
  5. SnoSki14
    Could just end up being an Arctic front too, long ways to go though.
  6. SnoSki14
    This is one case where you want the WAR to flex its muscles so the system isn't too flat. Luckily that's been the trend for a very long time now. Very 2014/2015 esque type of setup.
  7. SnoSki14
    This could be something. You have nearly the PV coming into the east and interacting with the WAR and still warm waters. The question is will any low that develops stay flat and simply scoot east or will the WAR provide some resistance.
  8. SnoSki14
    Very strong signal next week for a big system. Given the recent string of November snows & repeating patterns I wouldn't be so quick to discount this.
  9. SnoSki14
    Next week looks really promising, nobody should be dismissing anything.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's an abrupt turnaround. The late week cold looks pretty impressive enough for NYC's first freeze but the cold after that looks like winter. I think a lot of places may see teens to low 20s for lows next week.
  11. SnoSki14
    Just looks like a frontal boundary to me giving us the next cold shot. If there is snow then it may be with the following system. Pattern isn't too bad for snow chances, even some NAO blocking showing up.
  12. SnoSki14
    First freeze of the season, 31F.
  13. SnoSki14
    It snowed in October and we've had frequent November snows lately so I don't question the possibility. EPO alone may not do the trick, you usually need some PNA/NAO help especially this early in the season. What's likely is that everyone will fall into the 20s by next Saturday. Highs may even get stuck in the 30s. A very abrupt end to the growing season.
  14. SnoSki14
    But will it flip is the question. If the atmosphere acts more like a Nino then December could be mild.
  15. SnoSki14
    Incredibly stupid decision all around, was it that hard to look at a weather map and a few models.
  16. SnoSki14
    NYC will go below freezing next Fri/Sat and many places, maybe even the city, could see lows in the mid to lower 20s. Most suburbs will see 30-32F this weekend/Monday morning. Very good agreement from GEFS/EPS on next Fri/Sat cold shot. Stark contrast 1st half of Nov vs October.
  17. SnoSki14
    Normally I'd laugh at the GFS showing this but there's strong support for cold near mid month.
  18. SnoSki14
    STW now up for north/western sections. Not too surprising, the severe is mainly shear/lift driven vs instability so there's a good chance it gets to the coast.
  19. SnoSki14
    Getting sun now too, temps up to 75F could help amplify the threat tonight.
  20. SnoSki14
    Well down here getting 70s with near 70 dews under cloudy skies on October 31st is very unusual, in fact it's record breaking for dews this late in the season.
  21. SnoSki14
    Or they're just playing stupid. Don't forget that we live in a world where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers are a thing.
  22. SnoSki14
    I think the strongest winds will just be ahead of that line so those strong winds could mix down as the line falls apart. Also great discussion out of Mt. Holly regarding tonight's setup.
  23. SnoSki14
    According to Don S. the 2nd half of Nov could torch. Hard to disagree he's been spot on so far.
  24. SnoSki14
    I doubt there's any causality to early season snows vs how winter will turn out. Personally I'd love a Thanksgiving snowstorm.
  25. SnoSki14
    Warm-up? I'm still waiting for a cool down.
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