SnoSki14

I don't see prolonged warm/dry like 01/02 with this very active Pacific jet. I think we're going to see some weird anomalies next few months though regarding precip/temps.

There was always a chance of a storm in the Jan 5-10 timeframe so I wouldn't throw out this possibility outright.

There's good evidence of a massive flip by February but the last few Febs have torched too so it's a toss up. Dec -SOI could lead to a colder Feb vs a +SOI last December. I see Jan 07 being thrown around and we know how Feb/March turned out. I'm leaning towards a mid to late Feb flip but an earlier flip is possible if the MJO progresses normally. March will be another cold/stormy month as the drier 11/12 and 01/02 patterns that led to warm Marches don't fit the active streak we're on not to mention the stagnant cold, blocky Marches of the past several years.

We torched in a very low amplitude 4-6 pattern so imagine a much greater version of that. The EPS looks ridiculous in the LR, we're talking 50s & 60s to even 70s for weeks that could start leading to early plant growth especially with no below freezing weather.

We may see the rare 70F+ temp pop up if that map is correct especially if there's a major cutter.

Perhaps but it's a lot easier to get warmer departures in the coldest month annually. Also don't fear a record warm Jan either as December 2015 has taught us. I'm pretty confident we score 2nd half with at least one good storm.

The melts have already begun and it's not even January yet. Imagine the chaos when it's in the 60s and 70s Jan 15-20.

I'd go even higher. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if March ended up colder than January. Every teleconnection screams record warmth especially after Jan 10. One thing to note is that our source region, Canada, will be getting very cold as we torch. In fact the cold is on our side of the globe so if the tables turn, which I think will happen sometime in Feb, we could see some bitter cold.

Yup, looks like a blowtorch Jan into early Feb. Raindance does point out the inverse December SOI compared to last year which should theoretically lead to a much colder February. But as we've seen the atmosphere and ENSO state aren't in sync so who knows. Think late Feb/March will continue the cold & snowy/blocky trend.

Bring it on, 70s or bust!

As mild as the 1st half of Jan looks, the 2nd half could be record breaking. If those teleconnections are correct we'll likely have a large eastern ridge in place and for a very long time. Some signs of that already from today's models. A top 5 record warm January for parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast wouldn't surprise me.

Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination. Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes.

Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.

This is true and a phase 4/5 entrance is probable. Some signs of a -EPO emerging too.

Absolutely especially in this volatile pattern. We could end up with something similar to early December but with climo on our side and a colder airmass our region may get involved. It could also easily cut without blocking so there's that. Growing disagreement regarding MJO progression. Euro wants to fling it into phase 4/5 at a high amplitude while others keep it in the circle or at low amplitude. Early thinking is Jan 1-5 AN, Jan 6-10 are BN, Jan 11-15 probably AN. Storm possible in between.

Interesting that CMC/Euro/GFS all show a similar storm around that time.

Given the extreme AO flip and lag time of the MJO after it passes phase 8-1, I do think some kind of storm is possible. The AO flip mirrors the early Dec storm that slammed SNE and northern parts of the area.

In hindsight these past few days have been very nice. A hoodie or light jacket is all you need. No need for bitter cold.

There's a wee bit of uncertainty regarding the MJO next week. Some keep it in the COD, some are low amplitude in phases 4-5, and some are very high amplitude in those same phases. Whichever one ends up being right could determine how warm/cold January gets. Both low & high amplitude 4/5 phases will lead to an AN Jan but it'll mean the difference between +1/1.5 or +3 to +5 or better. Right now a transient cold (maybe arctic?) shot still appears likely after Jan 5.

Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. I'd be shocked if March/April were warm.

Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.

I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.

I'm hoping we can avoid the cold if it's gonna be snowless. So far that looks to be the case. There's a chance some cold gets in 2nd week of January but that's a long ways out and the GFS has consistently been too cold in the LR.

Yeah March, given how eerily identical the pattern progression has been I'd be shocked if March/April weren't cold/wet.

With the holidays ending and the warmth upon us, I'm already longing for spring. Luckily the days will be getting longer now. Teleconnections say we should expect AN to well AN temperatures for weeks on end. Do not buy the nonsense GFS week 2 forecasts, as Bluewave has posted numerous times, they always underestimate the SE ridging. Unless the Pacific pattern completely changes, expect more of the same.