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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Well if it's Euro vs GFS we already know who will win. EPS didn't look terrible to me on the pattern going forward.
  2. SnoSki14
    We've barely hit mid-winter. Peak winter cold is from now until 1st week of Feb. Mid Winter runs from now through President's day and late winter post PD through the rest of Feb and March. This varies to me based on location. It's a little different for me in NJ than you guys in SNE/CNE & especially NNE.
  3. SnoSki14
    It really puts things into perspective just how spectacularly warm 2007 was. Would be nice to follow that into Feb/March.
  4. SnoSki14
    It does look Nino-esque. Would be nice if it translated for February.
  5. SnoSki14
    Euro OP pretty much torches the whole country after the 22nd so that's fun to look at.
  6. SnoSki14
    Though Thursday night and Friday temps aren't anything too cold for January, you'll definitely feel it given how warm its been. Another 50F+ today.
  7. SnoSki14
    JB continues to look more and more foolish each day.
  8. SnoSki14
    If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped.
  9. SnoSki14
    There remain a lot of similarities to last year with subtle differences that make things seem new. I think Jan/Feb will swap places with last year's Jan/Feb where Jan 2020 ends up as the torch month while Feb is near normal. I still feel mid to late Feb and March will bring the majority of BN temps and snow as Atlantic blocking finally shows itself in a big way.
  10. SnoSki14
    Tbf the models did back off of the MJO heading towards 8. The Euro actually has it circling back towards 6 for early Feb, which would be a disaster for winter lovers. Hopefully it's wrong but the Euro did nail the phase 4/5 trajectory. Don mentioned its accuracy isn't as good coming out of those phases so the jury is still out. However if it's correct then we'd only have a 2 week wintry stretch from this weekend into 1st week of February before the warmth returns.
  11. SnoSki14
    We're finally paying for all those blockbuster years though I don't think this winter will be a wash. Not looking forward to the cold later this week though. I'm already longing for spring after last weekend's beautiful weather.
  12. SnoSki14
    Saturdays event likely marks the start of our new pattern. I think a 2-4" front-ender still looks reasonable. There's another threat near the 23/24 that'll bear watching. Beyond that things will continue to trend even better. Record amplitude MJO could really help activate the subtropical jet as widespread cold descends on us. Nino response with phase 8 in Feb would scream KU potential.
  13. SnoSki14
    GFS more in line with Euro. Does hint at a secondary developing east of the Delmarva, we'll have to see if that becomes a trend as it would likely allow cold air to linger longer.
  14. SnoSki14
    It's better than nothing. The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us.
  15. SnoSki14
    I've yet to have snow cover for over 12 hours so yeah it's been pitiful.
  16. SnoSki14
    Yes and they let up on the cold around the 23/24th for a few days. There's some transient ridging in the east around that time. That could change of course.
  17. SnoSki14
    As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm.
  18. SnoSki14
    Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start.
  19. SnoSki14
    I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends.
  20. SnoSki14
    Don't see how we wouldn't get 2-4" or more from the front end. Strong surface cold and pretty cold mid-levels to start too. HP is 1040+ before it weakens so some sort of CAD is likely too.
  21. SnoSki14
    I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.
  22. SnoSki14
    Things don't really get more favorable until 1/20 and beyond. However I still wouldn't rule out a front end dump on the 18th given the strong high ahead of it.
  23. SnoSki14
    That should eventually get to phase 8 instead of curling into the COD.
  24. SnoSki14
    It literally feels like a June morning. 66F right now with 60 dews.
  25. SnoSki14
    We could also go into a cold-cutter-cold pattern too like the GFS shows. That's the risk you run without blocking. Still thinking the sustained cold/snow pattern waits until February with shades of 14/15 showing up.
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