SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
If we can avoid any rains next couple days then 100F will be a possibility early next week. Really intense surge of heat on Euro, looks even stronger than current surge. -
A lot of those early storms have mostly non-tropical origins which is why they never get really strong. I think the May/June early developments and late June through mid August lull will be a common occurrence going forward. Getting lemons right now in the tropics (MDR region) is good sign that things are becoming more favorable though. We'll probably see the real meat of the season start a couple weeks earlier this year.
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It's a powder keg setup. Things are gonna pick up in a hurry in a few weeks.
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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
It doesn't ever really let up. We're near 90 or above everyday. However not sure we can get to 100F. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Euro says we do this again next week. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Just go to a sauna then. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
If the current pattern continues into Aug-Oct then yeah it'll definitely be concerning. However often the bark is usually worse than the bite when it comes to LR forecasts. 2013 could still be in the cards too. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
I don't think we'll see the elusive 100F. Models have consistently backed off the extreme heat for our area and all the recent rains make it less likely as well. -
Fay was basically a moderate summer coastal storm in terms of impacts. Nothing too memorable though we did get a period of very heavy rains and wind. Hopefully a precursor to something bigger in August/September.
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Most of the stronger winds will stay aloft. Scattered 40-50mph gusts still possible in stronger bands.
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If it meets the definition of a storm then it gets a name it's that simple. Agree about the winter storm naming nonsense though.
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Gotta watch out for some quick spin ups later today.
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If the center can align better with the mlc then she could get to 60-65mph. Doesn't look bad on IR. I'm predicting stronger impacts than currently forecast. Some 6"+ amounts likely.
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Sounds like it'd be a good hit. Heaviest stuff will be north east of center.
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Storms like Fay will likely become more common in the future. Who knows soon we might get a home grown cane developing off the Delmarva.
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GFS is a bit further west but most models lean more east right now. NYC metro could be near jackpot zone with rains.
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Fay at 5PM
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The CMC? That gives us a lot of rain.
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Bring it, enough boring weather it's time for some extremes.
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July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Precip looks to pivot N&W west even if it stays east. We'd likely get some tropical enhancement due to its close proximity. Also if it stays broad and/or subtropical which is more likely then the location of the CoC won't matter much in terms of impact. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Thinking Friday is much more active than expected. TS Fay is looking more and more likely. -
Svr potential Monday July 6 2P-10P NY metro
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'm not sure I've ever seen that on radar, at least not in our area. -
July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Next week looks really hot. If we avoid onshore flow and clouds we could see mid to upper 90s for several days. The recent dry weather would even argue for higher temps. -
June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season. -
If it meets the criteria then it should get a name. Dolly definitely met the criteria for a TS.
