SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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But you're also fighting accelerating CC warming, which in itself is disrupting typical patterns. This winter failed to produce due to the northern stream yet again despite seemingly favorable conditions (strongly negative AO, favorable MJO, +PNA)
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Um it's 730AM?
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It'll probably be closer to normal. And at this time of year the sun is strong enough so temps often over perform when it's sunny.
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I think we're done outside of a nuisance event. The SE has a better chance of another snowstorm than we do.
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The only thing worse would be a chilly March after a very disappointing winter. Hopefully the warmer guidance is right
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I disagree. Pattern definitely supported a threat but the indices don't mean as much as they used to. The northern stream is the killer and it has been for years now. A strongly negative -AO and MJO phase 8 would've guaranteed a storm in the past. However I'm tired of all the hype and pretty maps everyone posts. Anyone can hype up a day 10 threat, but where's the results. Stick with 3 days or less and you won't be disappointed.
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We're in a cold bubble while the rest of the world is melting. Ironic given the current administration being dead set on dismantling any and all climate initiatives. We really are a frog slowly boiling except there's some ice cubes keeping us colder temporarily. But once the veil lifts who knows what will happen.
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He had a blowtorch winter for all and was harping on a typical Nina Feb with +EPO/AO/NAO & -PNA pretty much all winter. The only thing that worked out in his favor is our rather low snowfall totals.
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It depends what happens the next couple days. A lot can still change.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Sad reality. Models did back down some though. -
Maybe this will come back in a couple days. In the past models would lose the storm in the mid range only to bring it back later. However if the kicker idea is correct then there's no coming back from this.
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Pacific has been a killer for years. Dominant fast northern stream has killed all major threats. All we're left with is cutters and suppressed tracks. Virginia might actually clean up nicely with this
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It's been a killer for years. Northern stream is too fast, unless that changes we're not going to get a classic coastal track.
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Congrats Virginia. If this happens I happily welcome Spring
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Yeah game over. Winter sucks
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No it's good. CMC went weaker and less amped compared to 0z but 12z GFS/Icon got much better. It's good to see a range of outlier solutions this far out. The good thing is they would all still give this region its biggest storm in years.
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Things will still move around for a couple days.
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GFS has dual lows otherwise the track would be very similar to the other models. Still 12z gives 6-10" for the metro.
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His calls were essentially a record warm, snowless blowtorch though.
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None were as bad as snowman's torch winter calls.
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I said 2-4" From Feb 5-20 and that looks to be on the mark.
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The record Gulf ssts and tendency for SE ridge to be stronger than forecast could finally help us out.
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Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening.
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I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow.
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That's actually really good to see given Icon/GFS. You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out so having two solution on opposite extremes is a good thing
