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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Like with Helene the flooding/surge will be the story. Shouldn't be as large a storm so impacts will be over a smaller region.
  2. SnoSki14
    A stronger, larger storm will try to go more poleward. I do think Tampa could be in trouble but it'll be a close call.
  3. SnoSki14
    It is feast or famine. When the dryness breaks, it'll break hard.
  4. SnoSki14
    I could see a scenario where trough lifts out and storm gets stuck off the SE coast for a couple days until next trough picks it up. Still not sure if that would produce though
  5. SnoSki14
    Wind is more of a cool, aesthetic factor but yes the real culprit is almost always storm surge & flooding.
  6. SnoSki14
    Days and days of clouds but less than an inch of rain to show for it. We got easterly flowed into a slightly BN month. Next weekend should be really nice though, near 80F.
  7. SnoSki14
    I buy it.
  8. SnoSki14
    November is the one month that can still be cold so there will be frosts before December.
  9. SnoSki14
    A lot of dreariness without much to show for it. Remains me of a warmer version of March/April. Models showing Gulf activity too. Wouldn't surprise me to see tropical activity preceding cooler weather next month.
  10. SnoSki14
    Too far north to get into the rains but too far south to escape the clouds
  11. SnoSki14
    Correct so if it happens to be near normal, that's still much warmer than a decade ago.
  12. SnoSki14
    It's ramping up now. Large CDO structure developing and wrapping around
  13. SnoSki14
    Given how fast it'll be moving north tomorrow, there's going to be some very strong winds on the east side. Tremendous surge potential even if it doesn't get stronger than a Cat 2.
  14. SnoSki14
    This is not going to rapidly intensify, it's far too big. I doubt it'll be much stronger than 100-105mph.
  15. SnoSki14
    This could be more impactful than the strong Cat 4-5 hits as of late. It's all about the size when it comes to tropical systems and this one is huge.
  16. SnoSki14
    Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like
  17. SnoSki14
    Blanket statements like that mean nothing.
  18. SnoSki14
    Models wildly shifting run to run in under 4 days. No consistency whatsoever
  19. SnoSki14
    Since it's been so dry it probably means we'll get like 20" of rain in a 2-3 day timeframe
  20. SnoSki14
    It has another low developing, not sure I buy it. New GFS has gotten wetter. A very difficult pattern to forecast
  21. SnoSki14
    Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals.
  22. SnoSki14
    GFS got much wetter
  23. SnoSki14
    We might onshore flow our way into a near normal month.
  24. SnoSki14
    Need the high to trend a bit weaker to avoid suppression
  25. SnoSki14
    Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters.
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