SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that.
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Goal posts are shifting rapidly. If temps for the past 2-3 months were compared to the 90s, 00s or even 2010s averages they would be several degrees above normal. Now when a month isn't top 5 warmest ever it's surprising.
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But they would be well above normal if we went by average temps in the 90s or 00s or hell even the 2010s The goal posts have shifted to such an extreme degree that it's shocking when a month isn't top 5 warmest ever.
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It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad.
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Literally trying to deny reality. Like that meme of your house being on fire and you ignoring it.
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Volatility is good if it continues into winter. It might gives us a chance of at least some wintry weather vs a 22/23 type winter.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see freezes next week with all this dry weather really helping temps tank at night
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Just a few wedge tornadoes, no biggie
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Agreed, however those impacts will be quite bad regardless.
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One thing that worries me is hurricanes try to avoid hitting land as long as possible and given the trajectory, a more northern landfall wouldn't surprise me. Nail biter for TB
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There's going to be a ton of energy once this unravels near landfall, better hope it keeps trending south.
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Probably due to the mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Should see highs overperform and nights to be cooler than forecast.
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This is going to carry tons of water, sort of like Katrina on a smaller scale, even once it unravels near landfall. Will also get much larger than this with a few EWRCs likely Tampa better pray it goes to their south.
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It won't. No model shows this. Will it get uncomfortably close and have some impact, yes.
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It's an ugly run. Shear doesn't really get to it until very late. Track is very bad for TB.
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Yes but you'd go from catastrophic to pretty bad in terms of impact. Even a weakening storm that hits just north of TB would bring significant surge into the bay.
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Whenever you mention that people think you're trolling. That was my earlier thoughts. This is not a Helene situation
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Agreed it should be an average sized storm. That's why impact location does matter this time. It's a world of difference in terms of damage/impacts if the GFS is correct vs other globals.
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It's terrible for hurricanes. Globals themselves don't leverage intensity well. The GFS is doing the best job intensity wise of the globals.
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GFS isn't something FL would handle with ease and it's been very consistent with that near to north of TB track. Now that's something to worry about because the surge would be horrendous
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I'm not trolling at all. It's a fact that smaller, weakening storms are far less impactful than much larger, strengthening ones near landfall. It'll be impactful for some for sure but a lot of people like to catastrophize too especially on social media.
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I think Helene was downplayed by a lot of people which was crazy given how massive it was. That's the biggest factor when it comes to damage, size. Right now Milton is a small storm, we'll see if that changes later but a weakening hurricane of average to below average size in an area familiar with hurricanes will fare just fine. The impacts also change drastically if you go from TB to Ft. Myers.
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I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease.
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Radiational cooling could be really strong this week due to the dryness Wouldn't be surprised to see 30s here.
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That's an ugly forecast from the NHC. They note intensity could be stronger too. I'm curious how large the storm will be because it's very small right now and that'll make a huge difference regarding surge impacts.
