SnoSki14

GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track.

I think something like 2016-2017 is possible.

So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?

The problem with these long range forecasts is the hyper fast pacific jet will keep causing rapid shifts. I'm not convinced we see a big warmup after October 10. So far there's been a tendency for ridging to build out west and that could continue.

Our expectations are very low this winter. Like I'd be amazed to see a snow shower low.

Don't think the early foliage is just new England related either. Seeing a lot of color down in central nj, very unusual for late September.

At what point is blizzard just gonna admit he's a climate change denier so we can move on. And there's no point arguing with one. You can cite 1000s of examples and debunk every claim they make and they'll still come up with some nonsense. The fact is that the earth is rapidly warming mostly due to human related activities. Even when factoring in every natural cause, there's still a ton of excess warmth that could only be caused by humans. CO2 PPM levels went from 240 to 420+ since the industrial revolution, which is exactly when the long term warming trends began...it's not a coincidence. Some 99.7% of the 11K+ scientists agree. The only ones that don't have been proven to have interests in the fossil fuel industry. If you still reject all this then you're simply a denier who either has some vested interest in the fossil fuel industry or is just some edgy anti-science contrairian, which we def don't need more of.

Yes as cloud debris will get in the way.

A lot of the current fires were caused by lightning. Sure we could educate people more and clean up the forests but that's not gonna stop these fires from happening. The only thing that'll stop them is immediately addressing the climate change problem.

Awful given the fires there.

EPS/GEFS continue to signal strong cool down 1st week of Oct with possibly some rains.

As best as you're gonna get. I wonder if the early cool down and rather dry conditions will trigger early foliage this year. I'm already seeing colors popping up.

Is it odd that I feel better about the coming winter when all the forecasts show a snowless torch winter. It's like playing with house money.

Another night in the 40s. September actually feels like September for once.

September is still likely to end up AN but it'll be a departure from the crazy warm Septembers of recent years. Things def look a lot weather to end the month if the pattern shown is correct. GFS overplayed its hand with the ridging though so a late season 90F looks very unlikely right now and probably done till next Spring.

Models pretty consistent on another big ridge forming out west. Trough axis should be to our west though so could see some heavy rains around that time. Perfect time for a homegrown storm too but we never seem to get that on cue.

Models have been all over the place but warmer than normal should win out. Also already 47F at 11PM, gonna take the under with 46F forecast low.

If the ridging is correct late next week then we'll probably make a run at 90 late September.

It can't get much worse than last year.

If it meets the definition of a TC then it should get a name no matter how weak, sloppy or short-lived it's expected to be.

Depends on the cutoff situation

It's complicated and Teddy's evolution will play a role in the future pattern. Looks like it'll cause the NAO to go negative.

GFS showing 80s late September.

To its credit it did spot the phase and curl NW into Canada that models are now catching onto. Hopefully it plays out that way as it will likely generate massive swells just offshore.

Most likely scenario. A bit too early to see a big phased in trough, but October could be interesting.