SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Fast Pacific flow probably helped keep us colder than we would've been this month as it prevented big inland cutters from forming which would've torched us.
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Yeah I don't feel good moving forward. Congrats snowman19 it seems that calling for warm & snowless every year means you'll get it right eventually like a dead clock. However if December doesn't play out like typical Nina climo what's to say Jan-March will. So it's too early to say what will happen.
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Coldest night so far at 23F
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28F right now. Temps dropping quickly outside urban areas.
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Another chilly day for late November. 40F now and 43F today. Solidly negative departure month and a stark difference from the record warm October.
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You won't get much with fast Pacific jet pattern. You don't even get the big inland cutters due to how fast the flow is. There's a good cold source to our north though so we end up on the cooler side of things but it'll never get very cold due to state of pattern.
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If December doesn't follow the typical Nina narrative then why should the other months follow it. That being said you don't want to get completely shut out in a Nina December otherwise it doesn't bode well for the rest of winter.
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MJO very borderline. Doesn't look very strong, signs it may slink into 7
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I would hold off on that until we enter December. Don't like the continued +EPO and strengthening Alaskan vortex. Also lack of Atlantic blocking is concerning.
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March is the other cooler month and if November played out that way this year I wouldn't be surprised to see another cold March. Also think Jan & especially Feb torches unless there's massive blocking. Also hoping we see a 2017-2018 winter play out.
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I think mood flakes are becoming more possible Sunday with potential for something more. Really depends on how much the shortwave is able to dig. We do have cold air around which is positive.
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Fail
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A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN.
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November 28-30 is pretty much December already. Kind of like how March 1-2 could still be February.
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Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go.
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And yet when it shows warm in the LR you say it must be correct. The AN November call will also be a flop.
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It definitely will be tonight.
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Ridge has to sharpen a bit or shift further west to allow storm to ramp up near the coast.
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Surprised no one's talking about this. Really nice western ridge ahead of this with cold supply in the east Classic phase change in the tellies as well. -NAO/AO rising, + PNA
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Maybe but the reports back up those warnings.
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Some Thoughts on the Winter 2021-22 Outlook
SnoSki14 replied to OHweather's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He's going to say snowless torchy winter ever year. It's like JB saying cold, snowy winter every season. Eventually they'll end up correct though JB less so given today's climate. I suppose this year has more potential to go wrong than other years. A warm 11/12 style winter wouldn't surprise me given how much negatives there are to overcome. -
I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.
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Yeah really.
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Models will correct colder as we get closer to December. Active pacific jet is muddling the model data. The run to run model shifts are jarring and anyone thinking the forecast is set in stone is fooling themselves. So far the Nina has remained coupled.
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That PNA rise is big. Hopefully it stays on the models.
