SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It appears a quicker transfer could be the reason for the colder/snowier runs.
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Still floored I'm under a WSW for 12-20" just west of Piscataway. That's a bust waiting to happen.
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Nam has more confluence and is significantly better for those 20+ miles north and west of the city. Is it just the off run or will it continue, we'll see.
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Are there any similarities to this with the November storm a couple years back? I remember that one taking everyone by surprise. Euro threw a life raft in a fleeting situation but could just be a fluke. If the next set of runs doesn't tick SE then you'll probably see the Euro correct NW tonight.
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It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. Good for PA. They've been getting skunked while we raked in the coastal for years, they deserve it.
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Everything's still trending NW though that's the problem. A quick shot of snow to rain is looking more likely. Even places well north and into CT could dry slot. I wasn't trolling when I said 1-3/2-4" this morning.
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The tucked in models would increase the coastal flooding/wind issues. Someone could gust up to 60mph, which would cause outages combined with a few inches of paste/sleet.
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Yup looks like my 1-3/2-4" call looks good if that verifies.
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That seems likely. The initial burst will also cool things down significantly that could prolong the snows before warming takes over. Or maybe the Gfs still scores a huge hail mary victory. Wouldn't we all love that.
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Watch the dew points tomorrow morning. If they're really low (single digits) then it could mean the low will end up further offshore due to the strong press of the high north. We've seen last minute corrections east in these CAD setups.
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I expect a few inches, that's not dead and I agreed with the 6" thump as long as models don't trend further inland.
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Gfs is your hail mary with this storm. 12z runs will probably be the final nail in the coffin regarding track and amounts. If you want that 6" front-end dump then you better hope that don't keep trending inland.
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Clearly I was wrong, this s/w is no joke and the confluence isn't enough to offset it. I would love to be proven wrong now and no I'm not trolling.
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Mid levels will warm quickly so a quick couple inches followed by sleet/dry slot and then maybe another inch or two as the storm pulls east. And this assumes models don't keep trending west because if they do then it's more like 1-3" snow to rain. Once north of I-80 amounts go up significantly.
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Nam continues the nw trend. No way that's happening. I think it'll be closer to 1-3/2-4"
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Mid levels should warm quickly though so it could be like an inch to sleet that gets washed away by rain. I think you'd be right if we didn't have a full day of runs continuing to trend north.
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Models keep trending north. I thought the blocking would be enough but it doesn't look like it. The north trend was my fear a couple days ago but then models went a bit east and now they're way NW.
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Given it's still trending NW I'm thinking it'll be a couple hours of snow to sleet to rain with a coastal hugger up to the city. Huge storm for SNE.
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Welp there goes our snowstorm, ugh I guess the PNA will kill us after all. If models keep trending west it'll be a couple hours of snow to rain.
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A PNA would force this storm further east. The block is strong but not strong enough.
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Dang if only we had more of a PNA those crazy totals in PA would've been over our area.
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Barely. It's a bit more inland but then it goes ENE. A lot of this is just noise. Take a break until tomorrow.
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Icon is trash. Rgem isn't good outside 36 hours. I'll take the Euro/Gfs combo right now.
