SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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There's still quite a spread though ensembles have been shifting west. Forecasting the interaction with the closed low is very difficult. We really won't know till tomorrow what's gonna happen. C/E LI into CT/RI is my best guess.
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Gfs ticking stronger and west.
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Tonight and tomorrow will be the big window. Shear will be really low and environment looks moist. If this can align then it'll take off fast. Regardless of what happens the relatively slow moving nature will cause high surge and flooding. Irene wasn't a hurricane and did tremendous damage.
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Further west shifts seem possible but it'll come down to how sharply it hooks left. It could hit anywhere from NYC to eastern LI.
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Yeah on visible it still looks to have a slight westerly component. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC loop into the MLC as shear decreases later today.
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It would have to hook sharply left a la Sandy. Not impossible but very unlikely.
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Nam is too weak with it which has major implications with how it interacts with trough to the west. This is why models showing a stronger storm are further west. However if Henri doesn't get stronger than a 75-80mph hurricane then I'd buy it. C/E LI into CT still seem the most likely to me.
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Basically a continuation of our tucked in tracks. Major flooding for NJ if this gets near NYC. Surge & hurricane gusts out on LI.
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Storm looks west of NHC track. LLC near 74W. Landfall closer to NYC wouldn't surprise me. Storm slows down and loops on approach which means heavy flooding & coastal impacts. How severe will depend on how strong Henri gets. A Category 2+ at peak strength likely weakening to 80-85 mph Cat 1 is possible.
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Euros gonna be late to the party again. It had Fred's remnants coming much further east than the other models and was way off.
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Gotta see if models trend stronger with the hook left.
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LI/CT would be in big trouble if the stronger storm scenario plays out.
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Shear clearly decreasing now. Henri looks good and should be in a good environment by tomorrow.
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Surge should be quite bad. You better hope it doesn't blow up tomorrow & Saturday. Models are always off on intensity (usually too weak).
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Even if they are the threat of significant impacts is real. It doesn't help that a lot of places got dumped on today and don't forget the high tides this weekend.
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Lol wow.
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Recon should help a lot moving forward. It does seem next 24-36hrs are critical as to where it'll end up. A stronger system will tug further west.
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In terms of surge/coastal impacts what would be the worst case for the landfall location. Cape, RI/CT, SE MA?
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Whatever you say. Enjoy your hurricane.
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I don't want a storm. Dealt with enough nonsense with Sandy and Isaias flooded my basement. Just pointing it out.
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I would not discount a west trend. Every coastal or tropical system in the last several years was shoved further west due to a stronger WAR. If this were a winter coastal I'd still be nervous that it gets tucked in.
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System looks decent for being in such a heavily sheared environment. I'd be preparing if I lived in eastern NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2+ hurricane prior to landfall.
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Hopefully that's the case. The Ukmet solution would be pretty ugly. Tides will also be greater than normal due to full moon.
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Nope, if anything the tracks are shifting further west. Can't rule out a LI or CT/RI strike.
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I actually think it'll end up further west. Potentially over LI.
