SnoSki14

Starting to notice the decline in daylight a lot more now. Plenty of summer heat left though.

Why?

It's still gonna be plenty hot. A few mid-upper 90 days are likely.

So I'm guessing if you had your way you would just let the virus do its thing. No masks, no lockdowns, no vaccines right.

That wouldn't be an issue this time. The upcoming heat wave will easily be the longest and possibly hottest period of the summer. Models already showing near 600 heights and upper 90s for next week and we know things tend to trend hotter as we get closer.

If it's gonna be hot I wanna see some records. Let's get widespread 100s next week.

It seems inevitable that COVID will have to burn through the population and become endemic. It's not gonna go away, it'll get weaker over time as most viruses do and we'll have to move on eventually. We're fortunate COVID is relatively harmless compared to previous illnesses of the past. I'll take a 0.1-0.3 percent death rate over 5-10% or better.

Yeah probably but the period before that (5-15) looks like a scorcher. There could be 100s.

Massive NW Atlantic ridge setting up 2nd week of August plus tropics firing up. Could be an interesting period. Very hot & potentially stormy too.

It'll be a dew furnace. EPS has over the top heights to the northeast suggesting a lot of onshore flow.

An unusually cool 53F this morning. Enjoy this week of pleasant, dry weather because there's some serious heat starting 2nd week of August.

I think the peak of the heat has passed and this year it was unusually early (late June). There's nothing that screams big heat into mid August but it should be warmer than normal/dewy & stormy maybe. After August 20 the chance of 95+ temps drop off rapidly but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

This could've been a pretty significant outbreak if we had more instability.

I agree. The system does seem to be intensifying a bit though but not thinking more than some stronger non-severe storms.

Yeah deaths were really low in comparison to cases so the vaccines are working. We'll be a little worse off given our lower vaccination rate but I don't see a massive increase in deaths.

Things aren't looking great. CAPE looks weak with all the clouds. Could end up being a high shear/low CAPE type affair. I would be surprised to see severe.

That's ultimately what it comes down to. If COVID acts like the common cold then that's fine but if it leads to hospitalizations & deaths then that's a problem. And COVID will ultimately be endemic and join the other coronaviruses we deal with so sooner or later we'll have to move on.

Yup getting party cloudy conditions in Somerset.

Low to mid 50s looking likely Saturday morning here. That's a few weeks ahead of schedule. Usually mid-late August is when we get these shot across the bow cool downs. Fits the rushed theme this season really well.

Yup the fun is about to start.

That's like saying winter is over Feb 6. We've seen years with colder departures in Feb/March than Dec/Jan over the past decade. The pattern will dictate how hot things get especially in August when the solar effects are still very strong.

There's a lot of truth to this. The people who watch Fox News are older and most of them are vaccinated, which is funny when you have hosts spewing anti-vaxx content. Percentage wise latino & black communities are the least vaccinated and they skew heavily democratic. Most aren't the crazy anti-vaxxers you hear about though (microchipping, population control) rather it's more about being concerned about its safety as well as the side effects. I think full FDA approval could make them feel safer.

Not often you see 50s in the forecast during peak summer climo. This is much more common 2nd half of August than late July.

Our heatwave definitions need an update. Barely 90F for 3 days during peak summer climo is yawn worthy.

I mostly use Twitter for local or breaking news, just avoid the comments. Never felt compelled to use Facebook...way too much oversharing.