SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Models will correct colder as we get closer to December. Active pacific jet is muddling the model data. The run to run model shifts are jarring and anyone thinking the forecast is set in stone is fooling themselves. So far the Nina has remained coupled.
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That PNA rise is big. Hopefully it stays on the models.
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At least the Alaskan vortex goes away. Looks like a gradient pattern.
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Are you waiting till your house says 50F
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Meh we always get 70s in November. Nothing special. Maybe if it was 80F
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We'll need some western ridging otherwise it won't be great. Atlantic blocking is a must otherwise it'll look like 2001. It's gonna be another tough year with models I think.
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Must be a concrete jungle. We've had multiple freezes already in central NJ and seen 20s at least twice.
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Did he even look at the MJO forecasts. Majority show the MJO going to 7-1
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Down to 29F, tied for coldest night so far this season. Should get a little bit lower before things moderate.
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What a bizarre scenario this would be. Reminds me of that 2010 storm where we snowed and SNE rained
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Source region is cold despite +EPO You don't need Arctic air for snow. Blocking showing up late November into December is great for snow chances. You do want some spikes in western ridging though. A +EPO with a western trough is no bueno.
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Models seeing the -NAO is a very good sign though. That'll guarantee some snowy chances at least.
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Yeah it's a nice look. Love how's it's been trending in that direction too.
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See you during the next warm-up
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He's like the anti-JB. He'll post anything to force a warm/snow-free winter narrative. But sure if you go warm/snow-free every winter you'll be right eventually and yes pretty much any winter these days will be AN temp wise...no big surprise there.
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Big gusts coming in last half hour near Somerset
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Nickel sized hail for me. Never seen this before
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Looking to see how warm we get ahead of this. Usually warmer temps imply stronger mixing. Already 59F
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Important to watch the western US. You could have lower pressures near Alaska and still get cold if there's ridging out west. You'll rarely get a good pacific in a Nina but PNA could still pop from time to time.
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Yeah the source region looks pretty cold for latter November into December. That automatically makes it more likely that some of that cold will drain south. Personally I would bet on a near normal if not colder early winter.
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A warm, dry winter for the entire country would be a very good thing this year given inflation/gas costs. However usually when everyone says that'll be the result, the opposite plays out which is why I'm very skeptical of these long range forecasts. The rapidly changing climate has caused Ninas/Ninos to decouple from themselves and that's something that could happen again this year.
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Let's cancel winter now then and enjoy the warm weather & lower heating costs.
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If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. December is our best bet. Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.
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Big diurnal swing days. Hit 37F this morning and should see 70F today. Lack of rain and full sunshine means temps could easily over perform.
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Already down to 31F. First 20s of the season coming up will kill everything left.
