SnoSki14

The 12z runs highlight the problems of fast flow. Unless we have a very strong PNA ridge it'll be a struggle to get a phase going so I'm not very optimistic right now.

While our hunt for snow continues, parts of SC/NC/VA had a nice event last night. So far this year has had something for everyone. Places to our south really cleaned up already.

Yikes no thanks, 0 is enough for me. Although I guess -30 isn't as bad as long as there's no wind.

Something is def going to happen end of January given strong and consistent signals from ensembles. Way too early to say what exactly though. That's a strong signal from 06z GEFS. The problem is whether the trough axis will end up too far east leading to another close call. I'd like to see a sharper ridge out west moving forward.

Don't do it to yourself.

The trough looks considerably further east than the last major cutter. OTS is more of a risk imo. I think the new Euro upgrade amps the storms too far.

Personally I think a miss is more likely than what the Euro op shows. The trough is pretty far east.

Gfs shows a pretty good SSW event early Feb

Now watch that verify lol

The snows will come when everyone has lost all hope. 12z runs weren't too bad. I like the GFS/ggem combo

The ridge over Alaska maintains the cold supply despite seemingly unfavorable parameters otherwise.

Let's hope so, the cold/dry weather is trash.

That ridge for February could easily give widespread 70s for multiple days even. Maybe even an 80F reading nearby.

Get ready for another March 2018 repeat.

Theres def some merit to this. Euro op has been performing terribly this year. It really would be amazing if we got through this period with nothing. Talk about incredibly bad luck.

Looks like we're back to our cool Nov, blowtorch Dec & Feb and likely cool March pattern. Jan has been a mixed bag with this year leaning cooler.

Back-edge coming fast. Will get a dusting at best. We've had more than that in a 10 minute squall.

White rain, 34F. Looks like it ends by 11. Ground is wet so unlikely to see anything. Pathetic

If it's not gonna snow then I'd love an extended spring. Nothing more depressing than cold/dry, it's completely useless.

Chances are when we're hoping for a nice early spring the weather will turn foul. If Feb is a blowtorch then March likely won't be.

I'm at 37F as well. If it does flip it'll last for less than an hour. The least snowy models got it right.

I want this till spring, this winter has been the most frustrating one I can remember. Let's torch this f*cker

If we get to the 30th without anything to show for it then I want to burn this winter to the ground. One of the most frustrating periods I've seen. Nothing but close calls topped with useless cold. I'll take the torch winters over this crap.

The best I see is clippers or some kind of redeveloper otherwise the flow is too fast for anything else. Day 5 on GFS exemplifies this perfectly. You got a good southern vortex but the northern stream is zipping along so nothing happens and vortex shears out as it heads east. This kind of pattern would've been better late winter when wavelengths change.

In hindsight this pattern looked good from afar but everything seemed to destructively interfere with one another. The fast flow never let up and when it did the blocking was insufficient so we had a major cutter. At least we got some snow out of it. After the 30th I think we're skunked till Feb 15-20th the earliest but then again we've also had snow in much warmer patterns so who knows. I continue to believe Feb 20 - March 15/20 will be our snowiest period. It aligns with the east based Nina & QBO pattern. Anyway enjoy the inch you get bc it could be the last one for a while.