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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    That's because any 12"+ storm is historic for us and this one looks to nail everyone from DC to Boston, which is even rarer...from a Miller B no less. Given the amount of moisture fed into this and the lengthy period of snow I could see why Jan 2016 could be mentioned. Don't see why we can't see 20"+ amounts honestly.
  2. SnoSki14
    Agree. The consensus with the biggest totals is further south. Good to see Nam move away from a hugger. This is looking like a solid MECS with 12-18" totals.
  3. SnoSki14
    This is the GFS version that nailed that December event correct?
  4. SnoSki14
    Blockiness is winning out. Models are gradually turning back the SE ridge and pumping up Atlantic blocking. Not entirely surprising given very negative AO.
  5. SnoSki14
    Oddly enough we'll likely see much more than with the Dec storm but NWS is keeping forecast amounts low. The day before the December storm they had widespread 12-20" amounts in the forecast now it's more like 6-12"
  6. SnoSki14
    Weren't you just panicking about it being suppressed.
  7. SnoSki14
    Nam is a northern outlier and Ukie southern outlier. The rest basically jackpot the NYC metro. 06 GFS/GEFS are excellent.
  8. SnoSki14
    It'll be fine. Gfs & Rgem held.
  9. SnoSki14
    It's been all over the place. Every other models went NW.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's an outlier at this time.
  11. SnoSki14
    Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm.
  12. SnoSki14
    Gfs is quick to decay the CCB and I think the amounts it shows are too light after 72hrs. Mesos will have a better handle on this.
  13. SnoSki14
    It'll tick north to a point. There's a limit to how much further north it can get. The blocking/confluence is sharper than with the Dec storm. The western ridge axis is also further east so the storm won't hug the coastline.
  14. SnoSki14
    We def have to pay attention now. If it snows for 30-36+ hrs within a CCB you're talking 2'+ totals somewhere.
  15. SnoSki14
    What it shows up to 48hrs is likely legit and by then it has a wall of snow from the overrunning coming in. The Nam's crazy totals are possible given the very slow movement and moisture feed. It's gonna snow for a while. However I'd rather play it safe for now. Let's see what the others show.
  16. SnoSki14
    The improvements in the PNA ridge should really make this pop. Given the stalled out nature of this plus the deep flow of moisture someone's gonna score big.
  17. SnoSki14
    For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures.
  18. SnoSki14
    Good to see a mix of more northern solutions in there.
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be very surprised if the jackpots were south.
  20. SnoSki14
    Anything beyond 48hrs is useless on the NAM. But yes a lesser solution is still on the table especially those north of the city. One of the top analogs was the late Jan 2015 storm. However others like Dec 09, Jan 2016, Dec 2010 and even Jan 96 were in there too.
  21. SnoSki14
    We will adding a lot to this too.
  22. SnoSki14
    That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.
  23. SnoSki14
    Looks like a gradient battle for Feb. Tons of cold on our side, we'll maintain AO/NAO blocking. SE ridge will be fighting back with MJO stuck at 7. Could be interesting.
  24. SnoSki14
    With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. I think the Euro will come around soon enough.
  25. SnoSki14
    Shocker that you're saying it's a miss. The Euro is an outlier. I do think the cut off will be tight but NYC south will do fine.
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