SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Big upside to this one, let's hope for that last minute Miller B east push.
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NYC is iffy with the mixing. Heaviest amounts will likely be just N&W of the city. Regardless they should easily get up to a foot or more.
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Likely way too amped but that's pretty typical of the Rgem. 15"+ seems likely before any dry slot or mixing for the city. 06z Nam/Gfs/Para GFS were stellar. Personally hoping para scores a coup here.
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Ukie has been all over the place with this one. Unless the Euro agrees it's a clear outlier.
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The more southern displacement of Atlantic blocking and strong ridging east of New England this year is partly why coastals, even Miller Bs may be closer to the coast. The ridge out west being further east than typical for big coastals probably helps us avoid a hugger.
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Still can't believe it'll be snowing tomorrow evening into Wednesday possibly.
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I wonder why they trimmed my warning totals down from 11-15" to 9-15".
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Better run of the regular GFS. Ticks the low a bit further west but front end dump is really strong. Looks like the dry slot gets into NYC and west for a time before another round of snow as the low drifts east. Jackpot NNJ
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Lol 46"+ I'm gonna have to sell that.
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It's east compared to the other models but it did shift a bit further west from its last run.
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Nam did shift a bit further west from the last run.
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The Nam is still an outlier right now. Others models are more tucked in.
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Interesting how the Nam is starting to get consistent with the more offshore track. And it's within its good range.
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It's gonna be a good hit. Low isn't tucking into the coast.
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Models tend to tick NW until the very end but often the low actually ends up slightly east of projections as the storm is ongoing. However given what happened in December it's best to be cautious. Fingers crossed.
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Will be a good test to see if it's right again.
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A compromise would be nice. I have a feeling north central NJ extending into eastern PA could jackpot here. Under WSW for 11-15" which is pretty good given where we stand. I think we are more likely to see higher amounts than lower with this storm given the extended duration and intense easterly moisture flow.
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Everything up to 36hrs looks good. We'll pick up a few inches with the overrunning. Then they'll likely be a lull as the coastal takes over and finally precip will explode over our area as the low may loop around just offshore. After that we'll have to see where the heaviest bands set up and if we get dry slotted. That will determine who gets the 12-20" amounts. Should be fun to watch unfold.
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That's why you're not supposed to live and die on each model run. Nam looks like an eastern outlier. Possible but consensus is further west.
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This will likely be one of the more gustier storms we see. Good chance of 40-55mph gusts near the coast. It should be a fun event. Don't sweat every model run.
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That wouldn't be rain it would be a dry slot. Probably freezing drizzle.
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Regardless we should still get 6-12" from the overrunning and initial dump. We may also get some backside snows as the low pulls east. There's no need to panic.
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It'll correct as we get closer, it always does.