SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Let's cancel winter now then and enjoy the warm weather & lower heating costs.
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If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. December is our best bet. Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.
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Big diurnal swing days. Hit 37F this morning and should see 70F today. Lack of rain and full sunshine means temps could easily over perform.
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Already down to 31F. First 20s of the season coming up will kill everything left.
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How was December in those years? I forget.
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It could show an ideal pattern and you'd say it was inaccurate. Your warm bias is overplayed. Yes AN is favored obviously but I don't think it'll be another 11/12 or 19/20
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That's crazy how some barely hit 32 or not at all. Many places in Jersey were in the 20s this morning. Hit 30F myself.
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Friday night will be the coldest of this stretch. Widespread 20s likely under ideal raditional cooling.
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First freeze of the season. 31F Now 30F just after sunrise.
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Already down to 37F
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34F this morning. Excellent raditional cooling tonight should easily get us to freezing.
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Sounds like rocket fuel for another 30-40"+ snowstorm nearby. All you need is a favorable blocking interval which I think is likely this season and boom.
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Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway.
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Yeah I wouldn't give up on the weekend coastal.
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They don't and I love getting all those weenies for posting the truth. Btw get ready for more 60s and 70s 2nd & 3rd week of November.
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If we're seeing this kind of warmth today imagine 5-10 years from now. It'll be Septemberlike in November.
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I do think mid November (or even earlier) will be mild but I also see that being transient. I think the last third will turn cooler and that will go along with the expected blocking in December.
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Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI.
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If the Nina stays coupled then I would buy it. Early season blocking is also strongly favored due to weak PV.
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Looks like it continued to ramp up LLJ too
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And some still hope a major comes by one year. Yeah good luck with that I'm sure nothing bad will happen.
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Afternoon models amping up LLJ for tomorrow night. You can see there's better mixing with higher temps depicted for S/C NJ. Much more of a wind threat than the last system. Could easily see widespread 40-50mph gusts.
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Works for me. Been saving a lot of money on heating bills. As long as it's below 70 in November then I'm fine.
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It won't come in without a WAR fight but yes cooler air is likely. I think the growing season will end for most late next week.
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As long as the track doesn't tuck. Hopefully yesterday's storm will be a precursor to our winter storm tracks.
