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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I think we are due for some cooler weather even taking AGW into account. The positive numbers have been so off the charts that a correction seems likely. Noticed models are trending stronger with early November cool shot. Could very well end the growing season for many.
  2. SnoSki14
    I do see bust potential if there's any more separation. HRRR shows that.
  3. SnoSki14
    Guess we'll see how good the upgrade was.
  4. SnoSki14
    We'll see. The rain impacts will be the same regardless due to the double barreled low structure.
  5. SnoSki14
    Gradually increasing amounts. Widespread 4-6" totals looking likely with isolated 8"+ amounts. I'm seeing a double barreled low with one low on the coast and a second SE of LI. Eventually the two merge what is why the eastern low loops west to just off the NJ coast. Wind impacts could come from the initial low on the coast and from the subtropical like storm that retros. You can really see the LLJ increase on the HRRR. LI is going to get whacked. I definitely could see them getting near hurricane force gusts
  6. SnoSki14
    Models can't figure out if there'll be two lows or one main low. Regardless it looks like a heavy rain event with gusty winds is likely. But like the NWS said it's a very low confidence forecast meaning things could end up worse than expected.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yikes at that Nam run. Very strong winds too. Breaks the inversion hence the much warmer temperatures this run for Tuesday. Also matches Euro/EPS If trends continue it's gonna get ugly.
  8. SnoSki14
    As far as damage goes I'm actually more concerned about the Friday system. That's a deep anomaly and a strong gradient that's been trending stronger on the ensembles.
  9. SnoSki14
    You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC.
  10. SnoSki14
    Gonna have to watch to see if this backs in more. As it shows now it would be an impressive storm with 3-5" totals. Very strong winds for the coast.
  11. SnoSki14
    Very Ida-esque on the Ukie. Wonder if Euro will follow
  12. SnoSki14
    If it's a subtropical or tropical system it's gonna get captured and forced further west. We really won't have an answer until tomorrow afternoon the earliest and possibly not until the event begins.
  13. SnoSki14
    You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.
  14. SnoSki14
    I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal.
  15. SnoSki14
    I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season.
  16. SnoSki14
    Wow very impressive Nam run. Storm explodes right off the coast and if the trends of the last few years are any indication then that low could be tucked further west.
  17. SnoSki14
    Record warm ssts & recent heat just adding fuel to the fire.
  18. SnoSki14
    Things are gonna get a lot more active next week. Big south'easter possible just before Halloween. Lots of cooler, easterly flow though we do warm sector Monday hard. Think 80F to 50F type transition possible Monday-Tuesday.
  19. SnoSki14
    Well it's been July like since July so I hope eventually there's some climo. Warmest fall on record for most places in the northeast through today.
  20. SnoSki14
    Just an absolute scorcher since August. Even a return to normal would feel cold given current anomalies. Very scary times we're looking living in. I imagine within a decade or two numerous 80s in October will be the norm with 90+ temperatures possible.
  21. SnoSki14
    I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal.
  22. SnoSki14
    Yeah probably the case though anything that far out is tough to diagnose.
  23. SnoSki14
    If I could choose I'd have all my cold & snow from Nov 1-Jan 15. Lowest sun angle, holiday season, little daylight. Of course normally it's the back half that gives us the cold/snows.
  24. SnoSki14
    It definitely will be too much. When you flip from extreme drought to flooding there will be problems.
  25. SnoSki14
    Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November.
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