Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,680

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Would be nice if Rgem was correct. We get the best of both Tue & Thursday systems. If everything works out we could get 6-8" but we could also get 0-2".
  2. SnoSki14
    Yes it'll take a while to get everything in order. Your analysis is solid for the next several events. The Tuesday event will probably be too far north for NYC but it could always trend a bit south. Best chance will be Friday and then we'll see what late weekend brings. Large rise in the AO & flip to +PNA could indicate something bigger than a nuisance event.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah they always do this. One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal. However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina.
  4. SnoSki14
    I'd say about the same.
  5. SnoSki14
    The only thing we'll have to watch is suppression especially given a -5 AO
  6. SnoSki14
    Yes very nice. Too bad it's not Christmas.
  7. SnoSki14
    Looks like some 10"+ amounts possible on LI.
  8. SnoSki14
    Clown range but HRRR drops 4-5" overnight Monday into Tuesday morning for the metro. So let's see we have Tuesday, Thursday/Friday, Sunday, and likely something beyond that. Biggest potential in terms of snowfall amounts is next weekend with PNA rising and NAO/AO going up. -5 AO too before it rises, which is very significant.
  9. SnoSki14
    Getting reports between 5-7" in Hunterdon/Somerset counties where I'm located. I'm around 6" with light snow so it checks out.
  10. SnoSki14
    8" will be isolated. 5-6" will be much more common.
  11. SnoSki14
    4-8" looks good right now
  12. SnoSki14
    This is one of the few times where having a SE ridge may work in our favor.
  13. SnoSki14
    It looks picturesque now. Like a giant snow globe.
  14. SnoSki14
    Strong band still out west in E. PA/W NJ. We'll do very well with this system. Several spots will get 6"+
  15. SnoSki14
    Nam 3K has picked up amounts. Could be close to 6" for parts of the NYC metro extending into NJ.
  16. SnoSki14
    Moderate snows coating everything again.
  17. SnoSki14
    First flakes near Somerset.
  18. SnoSki14
    Plenty of lift. Doesn't look to shabby. Snow growth should be really good with perhaps better than 10:1 ratios.
  19. SnoSki14
    That has little to no effect due to wet bulbing. We saw 55+ temps a day before a snowstorm before. Looks like city is 40/18 right now.
  20. SnoSki14
    I think those heavier amounts will end up 20-30 further NW like we saw with past storm.
  21. SnoSki14
    HRRR was garbage on Monday. The only thing it got right was the sleet elements.
  22. SnoSki14
    I'm sticking with 4-8" but higher than normal bust potential. Thinking rapidly intensifying low taking track up to 40/70 should yield better results than a couple inches. But we'll see, hoping for a positive bust for once.
  23. SnoSki14
    Based on where the low will be the heaviest stuff should be over central/east NJ into NYC/LI. Remember the strongest banding tends to be further NW than modeled.
  24. SnoSki14
    Always go above forecast on wsw flow during sunny days.
  25. SnoSki14
    NWS going somewhat against guidance and probably for good reason. Snow growth should be very good for a few hours. 4-8" still looking good
×
×
  • Create New...