SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Hopefully that's correct. You don't want ice.
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It's a major ice storm setup. Very dangerous imo.
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That's a dangerous icing setup.
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This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter. Us having snow cover for more than 2 weeks is very rare so I expect the blocking to break down and a lot of melting to start by the 18-19th storm and beyond. Hopefully the melt doesn't happen all at once. If the 16th storm delivers then that'll aggregate the flooding potential.
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That'd be nice. I think it's gonna be really close for us.
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The 14th still looks minor to me. I feel the 16th will be snowier but it'll be close or like a snow to sleet situation. It's by far the biggest wintry threat in the short term. The 18/19 still looks like sleet/ice to rain but strong low level cold could turn it into a more SWFE.
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I'd go with less like the Canadian shows.
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The cutter will likely be the 18/19th but Vday and 16th look wintry.
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Early thoughts are that we take a break from wintry weather after the 16th system however we could see an ice/snow to rain solution for the 18/19 as the low level cold will be tough to scour out. But mostly from the 17-23/24 it looks unfavorable for wintry weather. Beyond that it's possible the blocking returns while the SE ridge diminishes (MJO collapses into circle or goes low amplitude 6-8). If that's the case there could be more wintry opportunities late Feb into March.
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Advisory snows very likely south of I-78. I'd go with 2-4" but higher ratios could give us 3-6" especially if the north ticks continue.
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And it's probably junk. The gfs tried this for the 14th system.
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Rgem looks better.
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I'm getting concerned about the ice threats. Hopefully it's more sleet than freezing rain. Low level temps look really cold too.
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MJO looks to collapse after the 18th or even earlier. Low amplitude 6-8 would reduce the SE ridge in the presence of blocking, which is likely to continue.
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Good chance this keeps ticking north like the last system.
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These north ticks would really help this time.
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We may have to wait until TPV shifts east. The Vday storm could be a sloppy mess if it works out due to strong low level cold. The following system has more going for it.
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The storm this weekend will have everything to do with the placement of the TPV & SE ridge strength. Gfs adjusted more suppressed/colder but the end result would still be a snow to mix/rain solution. Looks like canadian is similar. You guys to the north should clean up while areas near NYC are in a more precarious spot.
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Whatever garbage the gfs is showing ain't happening.
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The Gfs cutter idea for the 14th doesn't make sense at all with the TPV so close by. That screams miller B to me and could be a significant event with ample gulf moisture getting involved.
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It still might. There's so many shortwaves and model inconsistencies that snowier solution could pop in a couple model cycles. We just saw this on Sunday where models abandoned the storm only to bring it back a couple days before it happened and many still got it wrong the day of the event. That's why it's best to stay in the 36-48hr range to deal with every shortwave. I'm still pretty confident we get snows Thursday/Friday.
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Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
NYC should pick up an inch or two. A couple more ticks south are possible. Dense cold airmass in place with deep snow cover. -
Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'm starting to lean that way too. Not much precip with it either. I'm liking the overrunning a lot better Thursday/Friday. -
Additional 1-5" snow mostly North of I80 Tuesday Feb 9
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Canadian looks better. -NAO with AO rapidly diving plus the extent of the cold/snow cover would argue for slight southerly adjustments for Tuesday. The amped Nam doesn't make much sense here.
