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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    6" with this system will be much more impactful than the previous one that hit Sunday. Very cold temps likely with this one which will accumulate on roadways and the worst will be during commute times.
  2. SnoSki14
    The WAA snows should easily get into central NJ and probably NYC Thursday morning & afternoon. Snow growth should be very good with temps probably in the low to mid 20s. Ratios could be higher than 10:1 and that alone could drop 4-6" over 3-6hrs. Increasingly models are indicating a coastal element which bears watching. So my initial thoughts are 3-6" from WAA snows up to NYC then a dry slot or sleet followed by another round of snow on Friday. How much falls with that is unknown and models are still trending.
  3. SnoSki14
    Seems like most events ticked north in the end so wouldn't be surprised to see that again. However the last mini snow event did stay south and never really ticked north. I feel good about this one here bc even north ticks would likely result in a 6" front-end thump.
  4. SnoSki14
    I like 6-10" right now though that's highly dependent on when the sleet arrives. The lower end looks likely.
  5. SnoSki14
    That's a nice cold Nam run. It's still a tad out of range though.
  6. SnoSki14
    The UKMET has not performed well lately.
  7. SnoSki14
    Cmc would be nice though even the Nam/Gfs have a strong front-end thump before any changeover. I think a 6" event is looking pretty good right now.
  8. SnoSki14
    Main point is that Nam which is the most amped up model continues to trend colder. It almost looks like warmer, more inland version of PD II with overrunning then coastal. If the 12z suite holds or trends colder then we'll see watch this afternoon.
  9. SnoSki14
    What did you expect our seasonal averages are less than 30" and we've already exceeded that. By this time the focus is already shifting north.
  10. SnoSki14
    Most of the rains fell when it was in the mid 30s so a lot of it was absorbed by the pack. However we will see a lot more melting with temps likely climbing through the 40s.
  11. SnoSki14
    Today we'll see if models trend NW again, an all too common occurrence this winter. However the front-end thump seems likely no matter what happens.
  12. SnoSki14
    It was last to join the party with the Feb 1st storm so yeah it sucks.
  13. SnoSki14
    Things don't appear to be done trending either. Could it end up being a big miller A storm for the entire northeast? I still think that's unlikely but possible. Still worried about the SE ridge amping things up as we get closer though in this case Thursday's storm wouldn't be happening without it.
  14. SnoSki14
    It's very close to something more than a minor to moderate event. Let's hope the trends continue tomorrow.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yeah actually it is. Temperatures stay below freezing the entire time and it may not be finished trending. Maybe our post -5 AO drop will work out after all.
  16. SnoSki14
    Seems likely that we'll see at least an advisory event with borderline warning snows for some.
  17. SnoSki14
    The teleconnections say the opposite. It'll likely be AN though not a torch.
  18. SnoSki14
    You'd think it would be further west if it's slower. So probably a good sign the colder trends will continue.
  19. SnoSki14
    It's morphing into a miller B. That's been the trend over the past couple days so we'll see if that continues.
  20. SnoSki14
    This is such a stupid take that's it's not even worth defending. The effects of climate change will easily cost far more than the trillions we'd be putting in. We're already spending 100s of billions annually for disasters related to climate change. But sure let's do nothing and continue to trash the planet and see what happens.
  21. SnoSki14
    A warm outcome is definitely likely but weird things happen during seasonal transition periods. So a random March snowstorm wouldn't surprise me even if it's mixed in with warm weather all around.
  22. SnoSki14
    Just hoping for one more 5-6" event to put us over 40" and wrap this winter up. Things are looking more spring-like post 2/20-21.
  23. SnoSki14
    Some models going for that Miller B route. And they still appear to be trending that way so we'll see what happens. I know some will want to compare Tuesday's bust with Thursday but they are very different storms. The presence of an arctic high is key.
  24. SnoSki14
    The Nam is useless after 48hrs meaning very low model skill. It's also almost always too amplified.
  25. SnoSki14
    It's got good potential. Models keep trending less amped or basically the opposite of tomorrow. Could be a last hurrah too as pattern moving forward doesn't look very favorable.
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