SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Gfs op really replicates the Jan MJO 7 pattern to a tee through day 10. More ridging out west, cold in the middle and ridge resistance off the east coast. Also wants to do a flash freeze Sunday night but we know how that usually plays out.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
It has that early spring dreary feel to it. Could stay that way with some breaks rest of week. -
I deleted the posts there.
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Note to self: Never mention climate change because everyone loses their minds.
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Yes they are. I live in the suburbs so the cold has been enough to kill most blooms but many urban places barely dropped below freezing. The current warmth will only help.
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Looks like 55-60F for the rest of the week, a brief cool down and more 50s. Won't be long till flowers start blooming.
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Because of one OP run? No I don't see historic.
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Nice mega ridge with a subtropical storm too.
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And I don't see that stopping anytime soon which means winters from now on should mostly be a lot milder with less snows. Occasionally there could still be patterns that deliver a significant snowstorms but they'll be a lot rarer. Our golden era is sadly over. Meanwhile the west coast and Pacific NW will have their golden era at least until the warming becomes too much.
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Something is changing. Pattern is looking a lot more active which is good. Looks like cutter season
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What a torchy rest of the week. 50s and even 60+ readings. Winter is dead until further notice
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I think this is good
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My thoughts are we get most of the snows in late winter. Late Feb & March as blocking returns and PNA signature is more favorable.
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Any OP run past 5 days is in weenie land. Even 3+ days is a lot. Ensembles still look iffy with continued -PNA. If blocking were stronger we could've counteracted it. Right now things look very cutterish.
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I think mid Jan to Feb 15-20 will likely torch. If blocking hangs around then it'll be cooler. Best snowfall opportunities will be 1st half of Jan and then late winter. Good chance that blocking showing up now will show its face again and the -PNA won't be as damaging late winter due to wavelength changes. In fact a -PNA after Feb 20 is more favorable than a +PNA for snows here.
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That's pretty much what I'm betting on.
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Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out.
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Idk what's worse, his politics or his weather forecasts. He called for global cooling in the 2010s & instead there was an acceleration in warming. It's the same song and dance every year. Big cold & snows in the east or major hurricane strike in the northeast. Eventually he'll be right but so is a dead clock.
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Yeah it's pretty crappy. The Gfs is way too gung-ho on these snowy solutions and it means nothing when it's 3+ days out. 9 out of 10 times the warmest, least snowy model wins
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There will be chances 1st half of January
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Ensembles look less extreme with -PNA and also shifted it east some. Could be a response to MJO 7 as we head into January. If that's the case then the first week of January should be on the colder side with a possible arctic shot as well. Any relaxation of the -PNA would be good for us as blocking is still present.
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You should never hope for 110 here. Given our high dews that's a recipe for 125-130F HI which would be lethal. We're talking brownouts, blackouts and a lot of people dying.
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It's snowing Mr Grinch
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That's gonna be a historic winter out west. Really good for the drought situation. Highs in the teens possibly and single digits lows for Seattle. Below zero for Vancouver. This after 115-120F temperatures last summer.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
SnoSki14 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
It doesn't have to flip at all and it probably won't until there's a seasonal transition.
