SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I think we have a greater than 50% at a moderate system (3-6"). The fast flow will counteract the negative tilt preventing a wound up hugger. Actually think parts of SNE are more likely to mix as storm really blows up and tucks in after it passes our region.
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Flow is too fast for such an inland track. Still think a whiff is more likely than cutter.
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Gfs disagrees and it did well with last system
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Flow is fast. We're going to see dramatic model shifts next couple days. I'm leaning towards a whiff right now.
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I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now
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Its not bad. Reminiscent of 13/14
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MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern. Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast.
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Progressive flow counteracts that risk. A whiff is much more probable imo
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I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even see flakes from this.
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Yeah seriously let them have this one.
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Yeah definitely. They can have it.
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Maybe the higher than forecast temps are a sign of stronger ridging. Prob not but wishcasting is fun.
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HRRR would be a big miss but it's also useless beyond 6-8 hours
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Painful to look at.
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Watching the radar will be brutal tomorrow.
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S NJ may get some interesting weather or the GFS is still on crack.
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That negative tilt causes the storm to slow down which allows precip to move further north.
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I do see a scenario where the northern extent ends up being 30-50 miles further north. A more energetic southern vortex leading to stronger negative tilt could get snows up to north central NJ. HRRR will be interesting moving forward.
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Well the Nam said that's a wrap and I think it's correct. Models were overdoing the NW ticks and are now pulling back. I expect the GFS to follow. You're relying on the southern vortex to do all the work without a lot of help from the northern stream, which is why the precip field is so tight. Let the Mid-Atlantic take the win here
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Latest Gfs stops the NW trend. I think it'll be difficult to tick further from this point on but we'll see. Could be a very painful radar come Monday morning.
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Nam continues the NW tick. S NJ now gets a good snowstorm. Models are still ticking north so the trend ain't done yet.
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If the past few years are any indication then this system will keep ticking NW till it begins.
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The north ticks continue.
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No monster block so this could keep ticking north. Getting flashbacks of some of those 13-15 storms that trended last minute.
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It's definitely still trending north but is it too late?
