SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The gambler's fallacy? Well not quite as the chances of a Cat 2 strike will probably increase due to AGW. Not significantly so but enough to possibly make a difference.
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Some people act as if SNE is like Alaska compared to places just south. Boston had as much snow as NYC this year.
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Thinking widespread 70s maybe for 2 days. It'll be a recipe for overperforming temps.
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More LR nonsense from the Gfs. Looks like a back and forth pattern after this week's warm up. Probably a few cold days mixed in for mid-late March but nothing crazy. AO still looks positive so don't expect prolonged cold even with favorable MJO. I'm thinking we see 75F Thursday or Friday this week after a very cold (teens in spots that radiate) Monday morning.
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Once those 70s hit you won't wanna go back to that. It's not like next week is a mid-winter thaw. We'll be pushing into mid March by then.
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Yeah pretty easily if not 75 honestly. We hit 80 in Feb and 80s in March so it's not a huge stretch. I hope it stays mild afterwards. Hopefully models are wrong on the colder 2nd half. 60s/70s with sunny, dry days are some of my favorites in the spring/fall.
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Surface temps could still be BN with AN heights like in February. Low heights over Canada guarantee BDCF by mid-late Match. Looks like MJO will get into the cooler phases and possibly traverse 8-2. Less MJO circle today.
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Idk about this. MJO looks to get stuck in the circle. AO will stay positive it looks like. Maybe more seasonal temps but nothing too abnormal. Low heights in SE Canada will definitely lead to cooler temps after the warm-up but we'll see multiple days in the 60s if not low 70s from Tue-Fri next week.
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I don't really buy the return to winter after mid-month either. Looks seasonal to me to somewhat BN at best, which could be enough for a wintry event...it is still March after all. 2018 ain't walking through that door though.
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This would be the type of March where we get widespread 70s 2nd week of March and then snows a week later.
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I think we're due for a scorcher. We haven't had an insane European style heatwave yet.
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The regular GFS is suggesting even a 70F reading could be possible. Definitely possible if AO soars to +5 or +6
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Amazing variation between SNE vs NYC metro this season. Here the winter is a solid B/B+ with well above normal snows, 4 weeks of snow cover, BN Feb temps. Nice December storm. Lack of 50+ temperatures. Negatives are a sucky January with AN temps Dec & Jan. If temps were a little colder with a good Jan storm then it would be an easy A- or better. The only true A/A+ seasons since 2000 would be 02/03 and 09/10. 13/14 & 14/15 are B+/A-
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The MJO running from phase 8-2 in March is not consistent with a warm March. Don't be surprised to see models back off the warmth. The short term Greenland block was definitely not expected.
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I'm not sure why people are so pessimistic. The EPS wasn't a bad look 168hrs out. Other ensembles look similar. There's been a sharpening of the PNA ridge and strengthening Greenland block ahead of the system. Nearly every system has trended west as we got closer. I'm all-in on this. It's the last threat of the season...go big or go home.
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If it showed a bomb right now you'd probably sell that too.
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It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant.
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MJO now expected to be in phase 8 as the storm arrives.
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Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential.
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Big SOI drop is a precursor to a major storm. Ensembles continuing to show a sharp PNA ridge and subsequent coastal with partial phasing (for now). Noted dips in the AO/NAO around March 5-7 timeframe too. I know it's early but I think we'll see a whopper Miller A snowstorm or blizzard for the northeast. Models/ensembles are already signaling this over a week out, which is usually a really good sign for an upcoming major storm.
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These extremes will continue to increase. We could go from record warmth to cold and back in a couple days as the atmosphere gets more and more unstable. We could see more winters like 2015/16 with insane warmth followed by a record snowstorm. In addition I'm sure the warming east coast waters will increase the tropical threats with stronger storms and closer storm tracks.
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Kudos to the Gfs for sniffing out the brief arctic shot. It could still back off but there's a lot of snow cover especially to our north that would help maintain the cold. Oddly enough the current forecast is much warmer than what models show. I see 22F Monday night and 41 Wednesday. No way it'll be that warm.
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Basically Nina climo + AGW to come up with that forecast. Completely discounted blocking, SSW event, etc, Hadley cell interference.
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There's a slight chance of something in the March 5-7 timeframe. Looks like a bit of a AO/NAO dip and PNA rise. EPS showing a pretty potent though transient eastern trough
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Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.
