It's been in the 20s for several mornings, feels like the desert with these huge temperature swings.
The cold mornings and dry weather are probably why things aren't leafing out much yet despite 60s & sun during the day.
Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures.
We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately.
Looking really mild rest of March into April especially highs.
Mostly low to mid 60s with probably some near 70F readings on a couple days or 10-15+ AN.
Looks like a more seasonal leaf out expected.
Things are much further behind than last year but with the milder temperatures we should make a lot of progress till Easter.
I always find the worst tornadoes arrive when you least expect it.
Hopefully tonight stays relatively calm. Nothing worse than some wedge tornado ravaging a city/town in the middle of the night.
Looks like a week of cool, raw weather and then full-on spring weather will coincide with astronomical spring.
Bottomed out at 24F this morning. Could match that this evening before the clouds roll in tonight.
If the pattern supports snow then it'll snow. We've seen plenty of snow in March recently.
However currently the pattern is very marginal for anything more than a few snow showers or graupel.
Today was very nice but too early for mid 70s. 60s would've been fine.
Temps could be nearly 50F lower by Saturday morning and there will be a chance for wintry weather next week.
AO chart looks ridiculous and blows previous records away. In addition the AO may plunge into the negatives a few days after being near +6.
Insane volatility.
I give it till 3/21. The 3rd week of March has a surprising amount of snow events.
March averages more snow than December for the NYC metro especially in the past 10 years.
Much stronger drop today while MJO goes to 8-2.
Should be near or below normal starting this weekend and beyond. Thurs/Fri could be the warmest until April.
Wow at this rate Thursday may hit 75+
It could be awhile before we see things this warm again actually. Too bad it couldn't arrive for the weekend.
Weekend looks BN with chilly winds to boot.
Sneaky easterly flow Tue-Wed will keep coastal areas chilly.
Thursday-Friday will push 70F though it'll be close for Friday. The further south you are the more likely you'll get 70s on Friday.
By next weekend and 3rd week of March it'll be a mix between crappy and wintry.
The gambler's fallacy?
Well not quite as the chances of a Cat 2 strike will probably increase due to AGW. Not significantly so but enough to possibly make a difference.