SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The ensembles look very nice after the 15th. Cold but not frigid which is good since you don't want cold/dry. We'll have a quiet period after tomorrow and then it should get very interesting for 2 weeks minimum.
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The timing is a relief. Had it been on a Monday morning there would've been big problems. I do think the icing will be worse than forecast. It's gonna be a challenge warming up those surface temps. Should be in the teens tonight. Roads are also even colder.
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Models all over the place after the Arctic shot though a general moderation period (4-5 days) is likely with somewhat AN temps.
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Shifting the Aleutian ridge further east and expanding it north makes a huge difference. PNA looks neutral here which is good enough given -EPO and neutral to negative NAO/AO. It also helps we're in the coldest month of the year. We could score even in a marginal event.
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Very respectable pattern for January. You can see the Nino influence as well so maybe we could get a juicier system via STJ. Would love a classic Miller A bomb.
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A little over 5 but probably just under that after compaction so 4.7 checks out.
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Enjoy what you have. Jan 15-25th will be the next stormy period. The Nino look to the pattern is intriguing to say the least. And if it lasts then Feb could be more interesting than expected too. It does makes sense that the strong east based Nina is acting like a Nino.
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We're fortunate this is mostly occuring during midday as well as the weekend. If it were an early Monday morning event it would have been a big problem.
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Everyone was begging for a 2-4" event and suddenly people are disappointed they got 10" just because someone had 13-14"
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One of top analogs for that period was Jan 2005 which had a big storm due to a similar setup.
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That's years of warming Atlantic waters amping up the moisture content. And this is a rather disjointed & relatively weak fast moving coastal. Next time a strong consolidated miller A/B storm occurs many places will easily see 2 feet.
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Ratios must be really good. Got absolutely whacked by a strong band earlier.
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That matches the advisory totals very well. Overall should be a nice minor event that'll make it feel like winter for once.
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I think we're good with the model watching given storm is on our doorstep. Now we just watch for banding signals to determine highest amounts.
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If the focal point is the western low then we're all getting 4-6"+ amounts
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Thats what I'm still leaning towards but banding could easily give some spots 6-7"
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A canonical La Nina would be a lot colder in December. However I do see -PNA conditions returning but the pattern shift may take slower than expected.
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I like 2-4" overall but banding could easily bump that up There's more upside than downsides imo
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I really like the mid Jan period. Tons of potential there, even some -NAO blocking showing up.
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I completely disagree. There's a building western ridge that will retrograde further west over time. Next 10 day outlook. Friday system 1-3/2-4" followed by cold weekend, brief warm early next week followed by coldest air of the season then some more relaxation as the western ridge really builds. After that the stage is set for a very snowy period. Ensembles hinting at some Atlantic blocking as well. I think Jan 15-20 and possibly up till the 25th could be very good.
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There's still a possibility of it blowing up fast near the coast. I don't think models will be able to figure that out till tomorrow. Either way the lack of a +PNA hurts this system but there will be much better opportunities going forward.
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I like the Jan 15-20 period for our area. Really nice PNA spike and plenty of cold. It's the missing ingredient for Friday's system.
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The Rgem has by far been the most consistent and that's what I'm going with.
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The Nam is a garbage model. Idk why anyone would take it seriously. Just take a look at its past 6 runs. It's all over the place.
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HRRR long range would be an ideal track.
