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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The high rapidly escaping east is not a CAD scenario given intensifying phased low moving in. Maybe it could start as snow but it should quickly turn to rain. This storm desperately needs a -NAO block. That would slow down the ocean low, turn it into a 50/50 and press the confluence for Monday's system. Although it's still a few days out I think the writing is on the wall for this.
  2. SnoSki14
    You know it's bad when folks are using the 84hr Nam for positivity about the storm.
  3. SnoSki14
    Long range still looks good. So what if this storm cuts there are plenty of future chances.
  4. SnoSki14
    Pattern gets better later next week actually so I def think we'll score eventually.
  5. SnoSki14
    Agreed. Either give me a monster KU or be warm/snowless. I've been a lot more interested in severe weather last few years bc I think that's what the trend will be. I'm kinda hoping Monday turns into a major southeast screamer.
  6. SnoSki14
    I don't think it would make a difference if it wasn't there. In fact the ocean storm provides some confluence for Monday. The thing is the more favorable snowy pattern doesn't really happen till the 20th on the ensembles.
  7. SnoSki14
    We do still have 4 days to go. It is possible the confluence trends stronger again and the track shifts east again. We've seen substantial short term changes already. But if the 12z suite holds or keeps trending west then it's probably not gonna be a coastal.
  8. SnoSki14
    I thought it could work out though the high to the northeast of the storm moving out was a red flag. Now I'm concerned we might be dealing with a powerful south'easter.
  9. SnoSki14
    The GFS track would create serious coastal flooding and strong winds. Timing around Full Moon. If it is gonna cut then I hope it keeps trending west. The storm could be a wave breaking event that flips the NAO/AO negative and makes future systems more favorable for us.
  10. SnoSki14
    Unfortunately there isn't any confluence to stop this from trending west. Given current trends I think it very well might be correct.
  11. SnoSki14
    12F right now by far the coldest of the season. Good thing there's no strong wind to match.
  12. SnoSki14
    Two runs ago it whiffed and you think it's going to Syracuse? The OP run is further west than the westernmost ensemble track. Does that mean it can't eventually be an inland runner, no, but it's way too early to jump the gun.
  13. SnoSki14
    Hopefully it delivers. So far December has been a massive disappointment and I have one 5" snow event that pretty much melted already. So there's plenty of work to be done.
  14. SnoSki14
    For shits & giggles Icon is OTS so don't worry about OP runs.
  15. SnoSki14
    If it does track inland that means it fully phased and would likely be extremely strong (960s) aka major coastal flooding/winds. Really bad timing with full moon on Monday However given our pattern thus far a big inland cutters seems unlikely. Atlantic City has a top 5 snowy Jan already. The coastal low is the more favored track.
  16. SnoSki14
    That EPS looks very nice.
  17. SnoSki14
    Which is why you use the ensembles. The OP runs will be all over the place. I'm pretty confident we'll get nice storm out of this. Looks like a classic to me.
  18. SnoSki14
    Who cares what it shows at day 6. Would you wanna be in the bullseye right now. A run ago it was whiffing east. Just use the ensembles until 3 days out. This is gonna be a big Miller A for everyone lock it in.
  19. SnoSki14
    You're actually hoping Fridays storm blows up closer to us to allow the next storm to take a track further east.
  20. SnoSki14
    I tend to think it won't be. The storm ahead of it acts like a 50/50. We could be looking at a classic Miller A here
  21. SnoSki14
    Yup I'll take that over some BS scraper.
  22. SnoSki14
    Just go with ensembles
  23. SnoSki14
    There's some shades of 94 with that pattern in late Jan & early Feb. It's becoming increasingly likely the cold pattern will stick around longer than expected possibly as late as Feb 10. If that's the case then we've yet to experience the true cold/snows that are on the table. The Jan 20 - Feb 10 timeframe is also a very favorable period for big snows.
  24. SnoSki14
    Today is make it or break it for Friday's threat. Oddly enough ensembles continue to trend better for it. GEPS was particularly impressive. There's a scenario out there where both systems, Fri & Sun/Mon deliver though the odds are very low. There's also a chance neither do. Either way we'll have plenty more opportunities next week and beyond. Current temp 16F, a couple degrees warmer than expected. Weekend could be a lot colder in wake of ocean storm. Single digits perhaps?
  25. SnoSki14
    The signal is real. The ocean storm is not trending west and the shortwave is slower to dive south. All you need is enough separation and boom.
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