SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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We will def score within the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't happen this week it'll happen next week. Next week is an excellent period historically as well. I don't think we've ever seen this modeled pattern (since 2000) not produce at least one big event.
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I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday. The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are.
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29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits.
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How'd your last OTS call play out. Also there's no need to panic. It's extremely unlikely we go through this pattern without another significant snow event.
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Watch ensembles not OP runs. OP runs beyond 3 days are essentially useless in this pattern. Ideally the miller A trends west & hits us then becomes a 50/50 for the following shortwave that turns into a Miller B. Additionally the Miller A could miss us but still act as a 50/50 regardless and we still get our Miller B storm right after. This is probably the more likely scenario.
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GEFS trending better for Friday.
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GEFS continues to trend better for Thurs/Fri. Getting closer to something more interesting. Good lead time of 4 days. Could keep trending more favorably.
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That's a good amount of time to correct as well. Hopefully it continues to show a more pronounced ridge out west that doesn't get knocked down so quickly.
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I'm keeping an eye out west. Are models breaking down the PNA too quickly. Will it be a stronger spike? Looks like CMC went towards GFS
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If that PNA spike didn't get knocked down it could've worked out but there's still time to watch it.
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I'm going all-in on the Thursday/Friday system. It's going to surprise a lot of people. And 5 days out is an eternity so plenty of room for changes.
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Widespread teens in NJ just inland If precip gets here early then it'll be a problem.
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Let it get a little further west first.
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Yes def worth keeping an eye on. Ensembles are trending towards something too.
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The ensembles look very nice after the 15th. Cold but not frigid which is good since you don't want cold/dry. We'll have a quiet period after tomorrow and then it should get very interesting for 2 weeks minimum.
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The timing is a relief. Had it been on a Monday morning there would've been big problems. I do think the icing will be worse than forecast. It's gonna be a challenge warming up those surface temps. Should be in the teens tonight. Roads are also even colder.
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Models all over the place after the Arctic shot though a general moderation period (4-5 days) is likely with somewhat AN temps.
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Shifting the Aleutian ridge further east and expanding it north makes a huge difference. PNA looks neutral here which is good enough given -EPO and neutral to negative NAO/AO. It also helps we're in the coldest month of the year. We could score even in a marginal event.
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Very respectable pattern for January. You can see the Nino influence as well so maybe we could get a juicier system via STJ. Would love a classic Miller A bomb.
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A little over 5 but probably just under that after compaction so 4.7 checks out.
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Enjoy what you have. Jan 15-25th will be the next stormy period. The Nino look to the pattern is intriguing to say the least. And if it lasts then Feb could be more interesting than expected too. It does makes sense that the strong east based Nina is acting like a Nino.
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We're fortunate this is mostly occuring during midday as well as the weekend. If it were an early Monday morning event it would have been a big problem.
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Everyone was begging for a 2-4" event and suddenly people are disappointed they got 10" just because someone had 13-14"
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One of top analogs for that period was Jan 2005 which had a big storm due to a similar setup.
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That's years of warming Atlantic waters amping up the moisture content. And this is a rather disjointed & relatively weak fast moving coastal. Next time a strong consolidated miller A/B storm occurs many places will easily see 2 feet.
