SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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This is a northeast storm I can feel it. Piece of the trough gets left back and phases with the storm.
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There's a leftover trough that tries to do it but not strong enough. Another option is it gets blocked by the high building over it as it moves NE. Should be an interesting few days to say the least
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Down to 62F from almost 80 just a couple hours ago
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The GFS is correcting towards the other models. I expect more east shifts I think we'll see a sharper turn NE in to SW FL. That's a strong trough in the east.
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The strong high pressing against this system means it's unlikely to head OTS so easily.
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Precip is expected to redevelop over the region as front moves east
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For anyone hoping for east coast impacts you want it to trend further N&E So either a stronger storm or a stronger trough. The 12z Euro sort of splits the difference and the storm ends up trapped & weakening in the SE. Given the low pressures over the east I would actually favor a more NE path.
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Hurricane force winds will be 100s of miles across as well as the surge so I think it's gonna affect a lot more people than you think. It'll also be going extra tropical which will spread out the strongest winds further out from the center.
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Insane GFS run. Even Halifax gets a good hit
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It might be pretty impactful regardless of where it ends up in the Gulf. Strong highs all around are preventing a quick recurve east and we could see trough enhancement post landfall a la 06z GFS & Euro.
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If you love meteorology you should be interested in this even if it doesn't affect you. This should be quite a site.
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2022 Atlantic hurricane season whining/banter
SnoSki14 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people. If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. -
87F Most in the mid-upper 80s. If it weren't for the clouds I think many would've seen low 90s.
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I think Newfoundland is more at risk. Bermuda is very well prepared for even a major. Also the trough phasing on some of these models really explodes Fiona (930s) as it hits SE Canada
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Massive core disruption is the only way this keeps going west.
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Slim chance at 90F for warmest spots tomorrow but that's it after that well unless we got some ridiculous October ridge I suppose.
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Autumn is easily the best season due to the journey towards winter as well as the events outside of weather surrounding it (holidays, football, etc).
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Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings Maybe in October
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At this point Fiona ain't missing the day 6 trough so now we'll have to see what the orientation of that trough is. Euro is very different compared to other guidance with it. How far west Fiona gets also makes a big difference. You'd need huge large scale changes for any sort of impact here though. SE Canada is easier
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Bermuda can handle Cat 3+ pretty easily. It's PR, DR that I'm worried about.
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I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though
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There's compression of heat ahead of a strong trough but 95 will still be hard to pull off. Also cloud debris of any sort would get in the way. Low 90s max is my guess
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No chance in hell at 95
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Ensembles are pretty cool for that period.
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The weakness in the NW Atlantic when Fiona nears Hispaniola has gotten stronger which causes more poleward movement making it easier to get swept by the next trough. If it gets left behind like the Euro shows then it would come close to the coast. Early guess with 70% certainty is that it gets swept halfway between coast and Bermuda.