SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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EPS is only relevant for mid-long range forecasts. Not when the storm is occurring Additionally the bust potential is to the upside. If the models are wrong about delaying the phasing/capture then the 06z Nam wins.
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With less wind likely ratios should be quite high. We saw this with the early Jan storm.
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People tossing the towel before the storm starts? Who could've seen that coming
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Yeah if that works itself out then watch out Short term meso watch for that
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GFS consolidating better. Trough is sharper
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Ratios should be good with this. I think people are underestimating that even with the wind factor. I could see 15:1 in this setup
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The double barrel look is likely showing up because the models are trying to resolve the capture. The lows wants to go NE but the capture would tuck it NW so you get solutions that show both. But this is why you should temper your expectations. Don't expect 20" of snow, aim low and if you do get more than you expect it'll be a nice surprise.
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Hopefully that's wrong
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It was a western outlier
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Reverse psychology works
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Will the Nam be correct? Maybe, it often shines right about now. I would play it a lot more conservatively. Hopefully we reach more consensus at 12z.
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Gfs will still be correcting as the storm begins
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In most cases these powerful storms keep ticking west till it begins. It's what often leads to unexpected mixing near the coast. This time mixing won't be an issue though.
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BTW temps are in the teens with 50-70mph gusts. Insanity if this verifies
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Absolutely ridiculous. Those warm SSTs will also aid in its intensification
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That's a blizzard btw. The wind gusts are ridiculous
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That's as good as it's gonna get for LI. One more shift like that and everyone wins
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A 50 mile west tick would be nice but oh well. Enjoy the blizzard, post plenty of pics
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Oh boy you're gonna get the weenies riled up.
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Atlantic City may break its Jan monthly record
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Epic storm for them possible
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Pick the scraper and you won't be disappointed.
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The west & east spread is just a matter of will there be a capture or not. In the event of a capture the surface low appears to head NW as the storm intensifies then ENE. That's clearly illustrated on the western side of the EPS.
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It's a little messy. If you're counting on a massive storm then temper those expectations. The odds of everything aligning perfectly in this pattern is very unlikely though not impossible. My expectations are very low for this. NYC east has much better odds, excellent odds for eastern LI.
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What a chaotic pattern. GFS op run is nuts. Who knows what to expect at this point. Snowman's torch Feb is going down in flames
