SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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This would really have to blow up as it moves NE. Very unlikely atm but we'll see. Streams are dragging behind as usual aka the story of the winter
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It's tough to get that excited for anything without any Atlantic blocking. I think we'll score another 5-7" event mid month that will melt 2-3 days later just from the -EPO/+PNA and then hopefully we get some blocking to finish winter. However the big dogs are nowhere to be found.
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It's still 35F in Somerset with precip almost over. Surprised that it's lower for places to my NE Was happy that it was all rain here though.
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Pretty significant icing event in N/W areas. Will get worse as it nears sunset
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Lol Atlantic City and many coastal NJ towns are 30"+
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Nice cold rain. Get used to that for the next few months if SSWE happens in March. Temps stalled at 38F. The timing was not in our favor, had this occurred in the evening more places would've seen icing.
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Yup. Although temperatures dropped they ain't going to freezing until well after precip ends. Only areas well N&W will.
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I'm not seeing it either. Actually the current period is the milder one that covers the coming week. The Feb 10-20 period looks chilly. Also notice how snowmanweenie doesn't say the EPO will be negative and PNA positive. Just that AO/NAO are positive
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Wow it hit 58F in New Brunswick this morning. Down to 39F now
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And this is before the rain even hits
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Yes there's actually a lot of consensus on a system for that time and models are slowly trending more amped. Nice AO drop and spike are also indicative of some coastal threat.
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If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right.
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It's tough to get too excited with the NAO/AO so positive. But the PNA should help us out at least once this month.
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I'd be willing to bet we see a good snow event in the Feb 10-20 period. Nice ridge amplification out west and it'll be ahead of another pattern shift. Good snow period climo wise as well.
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Lots of melting today. With 1-2" of rain, foggy weather and 40s it'll all be gone. Note HRRR and 0z Nam trended warmer. All in all this will be a rain event with perhaps some mixed precip before it ends. You really have to be well N&W to see significant impacts.
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I get the weenies for literally saying the same thing as Forky said. Yes high pressure trajectory isn't favorable for ice in the metro like it is for TX.
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GFS takes a little longer to cool down vs 12z
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Nam gets some icing further south before precip shuts off.
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It's called being realistic. I acknowledged the icing potential further north.
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Well above forecast
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Yeah it won't take much to kill this meager pack
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Don't know if it means much but temps overperforming by several degrees today.
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You're right NE NJ is in that group. UKMET has been garbage throughout. It was the southernmost model now it's the warmest. However I'm not seeing the cold drain setup until after the precip ends. You want what's happening in TX. Large Arctic high to the north sinking southeast. That's not what we're getting
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I highly doubt anyone in the immediate NYC metro gets any icing. You would need temps to fall through the 20s to see ice accretion. NW NJ, SE Upstate NY, NE PA is where the icing is much more likely. The GFS would have to be correct.
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He can't admit his forecast is flopping hard. I thought torch Feb too, which is still possible but becoming more unlikely. He'll claim victory when we flip warm which isn't hard to do if you forecast warm/snowless every year.
