SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Basically a continuation of our tucked in tracks. Major flooding for NJ if this gets near NYC. Surge & hurricane gusts out on LI.
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- hurricane gusts
- flooding rains
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Storm looks west of NHC track. LLC near 74W. Landfall closer to NYC wouldn't surprise me. Storm slows down and loops on approach which means heavy flooding & coastal impacts. How severe will depend on how strong Henri gets. A Category 2+ at peak strength likely weakening to 80-85 mph Cat 1 is possible.
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Euros gonna be late to the party again. It had Fred's remnants coming much further east than the other models and was way off.
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Gotta see if models trend stronger with the hook left.
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LI/CT would be in big trouble if the stronger storm scenario plays out.
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Shear clearly decreasing now. Henri looks good and should be in a good environment by tomorrow.
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Surge should be quite bad. You better hope it doesn't blow up tomorrow & Saturday. Models are always off on intensity (usually too weak).
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Even if they are the threat of significant impacts is real. It doesn't help that a lot of places got dumped on today and don't forget the high tides this weekend.
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Lol wow.
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Recon should help a lot moving forward. It does seem next 24-36hrs are critical as to where it'll end up. A stronger system will tug further west.
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In terms of surge/coastal impacts what would be the worst case for the landfall location. Cape, RI/CT, SE MA?
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Whatever you say. Enjoy your hurricane.
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I don't want a storm. Dealt with enough nonsense with Sandy and Isaias flooded my basement. Just pointing it out.
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I would not discount a west trend. Every coastal or tropical system in the last several years was shoved further west due to a stronger WAR. If this were a winter coastal I'd still be nervous that it gets tucked in.
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System looks decent for being in such a heavily sheared environment. I'd be preparing if I lived in eastern NE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2+ hurricane prior to landfall.
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Hopefully that's the case. The Ukmet solution would be pretty ugly. Tides will also be greater than normal due to full moon.
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Nope, if anything the tracks are shifting further west. Can't rule out a LI or CT/RI strike.
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I actually think it'll end up further west. Potentially over LI.
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Very strong wind shear over Henri right now. Gotta be nearly 30 knots.
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Don't pay attention to off runs. If 0z corrects then sure.
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It would be really tough for it to swing that far west though not impossible. The WAR has to end up a lot stronger, Henri needs to become a lot stronger and then maybe it'll happen. I do think if it did manage to get that far west that it'd be a pretty strong system.
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I think the WAR will keep the west trend going but equally important will be how strong Henri gets. Seems like a stronger system will get tugged further west in this scenario. That's something I'm keeping an eye on. So far the current strength matches what the gfs is showing.
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Should see some nice swells regardless of what happens. That WAR has been forcing tracks west so I wouldn't doubt the furthest west models here.
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The further S&W it gets next 48hrs the closer it'll be up here. Strength also seems to be a factor. A stronger storm will be forced further west due to greater interaction with a weak trough near east coast.
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Which makes Henri a little bit interesting.
