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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    06z GFS could be a fluke run. It's considerably more suppressed than 0z. We'll have to see if 12z confirms the trend. There's some dangerous amount of ice being shown just N/W of city with surface temps falling through 20s.
  2. SnoSki14
    Worth watching given strong Arctic high to the north. Cold air always wins in those scenarios.
  3. SnoSki14
    Reminds me of ice setups the southern plains get with the Arctic high supplying cold air that rapidly turns a cold rain into ice. Hopefully it's wrong
  4. SnoSki14
    You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well.
  5. SnoSki14
    My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period.
  6. SnoSki14
    Works for me. I didn't get a lot of snow so I don't really care if it gets washed away. Plus I don't want ice. I think there's better potential after this though.
  7. SnoSki14
    So did anyone get the elusive 30" Looks like a couple spots hit it.
  8. SnoSki14
    At least you did well. Imagine being such a weenie that tracks a storm for a week, watching every model run only to get 6-7". Let this bury NNE
  9. SnoSki14
    GFS/CMC went the other way. Very icy in NNE and rain elsewhere.
  10. SnoSki14
    The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive. Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary. And if it is a cutter those who got very little snow yesterday will be vindicated somewhat.
  11. SnoSki14
    It'll be close, they're hanging between 3/4 so could go either way. I do think a warmer pattern eventually wins out but could be delayed. We could also go back and forth which means we'll be fighting a gradient pattern. Hopefully it breaks colder/snowier. There's a lot of Arctic air up north which is good. That will keep us in the game. I do think place N/W that missed out today will catch up quickly.
  12. SnoSki14
    This month has been a solid winter month. BN temperatures and AN snows. So even if everything goes to crap at least we got something out of it.
  13. SnoSki14
    Jesus at that banding at Boston. Someone's getting 3' or better
  14. SnoSki14
    Still coming down quite a bit by Somerset. Ratios must be quite high now. 18F
  15. SnoSki14
    Very cold storm, I think 7-8" near New Brunswick seems reasonable
  16. SnoSki14
    Well then they weren't west enough
  17. SnoSki14
    It wasn't in the cards. 6-7" is doable though. At least cleanup will be easy
  18. SnoSki14
    What a year for coastal nj
  19. SnoSki14
    NJ radar looking nice. Ratios should increase overnight
  20. SnoSki14
    6-8 likely with locally higher totals
  21. SnoSki14
    For who?
  22. SnoSki14
    Sounds like weenie wishcasting to me.
  23. SnoSki14
    Nice to see the HRRR continuing to trend better.
  24. SnoSki14
    Do not buy the low shredding like that when it's so consolidated early on.
  25. SnoSki14
    EPS is only relevant for mid-long range forecasts. Not when the storm is occurring Additionally the bust potential is to the upside. If the models are wrong about delaying the phasing/capture then the 06z Nam wins.
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