SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It'll depend on whether or not future Ida gets left behind or not. I lean towards it recurving with the coming shortwave. If that happens we'll see a lot more tropical downpours and possibly gusty conditions with spinners.
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It's possible early next week is the last shot at 90s. If not then Friday could be the last day. Looks like a pretty strong blocking event for 1st half of September along with rising PNA. The likelihood of 90+ is dramatically reduced after mid Sept though not impossible as we've seen 90s in October.
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And it slows down big time after landfall. Likely another 50-75+ Billion dollar disaster.
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I wouldn't take that bet. However in the near term there's signs of some cooler weather to start September. Looks like strong Atlantic blocking and a neutral PNA will have some influence. Too early to tell just yet
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Lucked out big time. Less than 2"
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I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.
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In all seriousness the flood threat is very real and I do think many will be caught off guard by that.
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Imagine being mad because a major hurricane didn't blow your house away. Also the media hypes these things all the time, that's nothing new. The problem will be that next time there is a real threat people will ignore it. When Irene was less than feared for many a lot of people downplayed Sandy a year later which was a mistake.
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Deep easterly Atlantic moisture feed right now. Doesn't matter if the storm stays east of LI, we'll still see flooding.
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Never underestimate the flooding potential in these setups.
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People are underestimating the rain threat as usual.
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Flooding rains still look likely. Tons of convection just offshore. As the storm moves north, gets stronger and hooks left thats gonna affect us big time.
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Structurally it doesn't look that bad. It's a small system, so it has the potential to intensify pretty quickly. I think even with a miss well east some flooding rains will be likely due to the storm's interaction with the ULL to our west. Paying a close eye on the HRRR
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And oddly enough given the slow movement and the tropical moisture it could still do a lot of damage. You'd still get surges piling up with full moon tides and plenty of flooding rains on SW side. All this from what would be a 50-60mph TS.
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This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall.
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Wow this is an ugly sheared mess right now. LLC looks completely decoupled from MLC. If trends continue then there may not be much left of it by the weekend.
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Everyone's crapping on Henri which means it'll explode tomorrow.
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Looks like he's trying to realign himself.
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There's still quite a spread though ensembles have been shifting west. Forecasting the interaction with the closed low is very difficult. We really won't know till tomorrow what's gonna happen. C/E LI into CT/RI is my best guess.
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Gfs ticking stronger and west.
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Tonight and tomorrow will be the big window. Shear will be really low and environment looks moist. If this can align then it'll take off fast. Regardless of what happens the relatively slow moving nature will cause high surge and flooding. Irene wasn't a hurricane and did tremendous damage.
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Further west shifts seem possible but it'll come down to how sharply it hooks left. It could hit anywhere from NYC to eastern LI.
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Yeah on visible it still looks to have a slight westerly component. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC loop into the MLC as shear decreases later today.
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It would have to hook sharply left a la Sandy. Not impossible but very unlikely.
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Nam is too weak with it which has major implications with how it interacts with trough to the west. This is why models showing a stronger storm are further west. However if Henri doesn't get stronger than a 75-80mph hurricane then I'd buy it. C/E LI into CT still seem the most likely to me.
