SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The GFS is likely too much of an outlier so it should trend warmer today. If it doesn't then it would be another major fail from the other models.
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Models trending towards GFS is concerning regarding icing potential. Hopefully that reverses tomorrow
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Very odd that GFS didn't back down at all.
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After March 15 I'm done with winter so hopefully the sswe is a false flag.
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That's fair until the other models trend towards GFS.
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It was warmer initially but then it got colder particularly 850s with the 2nd low so we get a few inches. The other models need to come south though otherwise the GFS is an outlier and lost.
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That's a very meh pattern that should break AN. No torch though. It'll probably serve New England and the Midwest well.
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It builds in too late. That's where the differences lie. If the high builds in ahead of it then it'll play out more like the GFS. Otherwise it'll be more like a cold front or anafront
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I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. The worst case scenarios for the past storm never played out. If models trend stronger on the shortwave then GGEM will be correct
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Perhaps a compromise between the two models then.
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Yeah and it also had a massive storm west of the BM. GFS performed a lot better. We'll see if the Euro follows though.
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Oh great central & SNE get a big storm and we get the ice. I'll take the all rain option down here but CMC didn't do so hot with the last system.
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The GFS run gives you everything. Rain to ZR to sleet to snow. It didn't back down from 06z, it actually trended even colder.
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I know Icon is usually terrible but yikes at the ice threat it shows. Nam also trending south.
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That depends if the Arctic high builds to our north fast enough. On the warmer models it builds in as the wave approaches.
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06z GFS could be a fluke run. It's considerably more suppressed than 0z. We'll have to see if 12z confirms the trend. There's some dangerous amount of ice being shown just N/W of city with surface temps falling through 20s.
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Worth watching given strong Arctic high to the north. Cold air always wins in those scenarios.
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Reminds me of ice setups the southern plains get with the Arctic high supplying cold air that rapidly turns a cold rain into ice. Hopefully it's wrong
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You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well.
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My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period.
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Works for me. I didn't get a lot of snow so I don't really care if it gets washed away. Plus I don't want ice. I think there's better potential after this though.
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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022
SnoSki14 replied to TalcottWx's topic in New England
So did anyone get the elusive 30" Looks like a couple spots hit it. -
At least you did well. Imagine being such a weenie that tracks a storm for a week, watching every model run only to get 6-7". Let this bury NNE
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GFS/CMC went the other way. Very icy in NNE and rain elsewhere.
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The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive. Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary. And if it is a cutter those who got very little snow yesterday will be vindicated somewhat.
