SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Things are about to get wild soon. Convection is exploding to our SW now.
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True. All it takes is a couple hours to drop 2-4"+ amounts.
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This is rain we're talking about. Haven't people had enough rain this summer. I'm glad things trended drier and the north trend means more severe potential which is more exciting than a rain storm imo. However I still think we get nailed later on. I'd be shocked if we get less than 2"
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Some models hinting it gets close to Bermuda.
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Warm front looks to get stuck around central NJ. I see the tornado risk being adjusted a bit further north next update.
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Getting dicey. Won't take much to bring that risk to our area. Additionally 2-3" seems like a lock even with any northern adjustments. We could get those amounts in an hour.
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We'll get tornadoes instead.
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That's where I'm leaning. Less rain more severe potential.
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There likely will. The rains are from a once powerful tropical system not a nor'easter. The 10"+ amounts in PA happen in 6-10hrs.
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That's all it takes sometimes to get 6"+ rains especially when you're getting 1-2" per hour rates.
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Wagons south then?
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Yeah that date was a joke. In the end we'll still end up near the bottom.
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EPS really wants to build the WAR westward. No guarantee this is a fish just yet. Would love a big swell producer though with a recurve near Bermuda.
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Well I don't want flooding so if it wants to go north or south of here then that would be great.
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Seems like a compromise between the south/north models would put the NYC metro in the crosshairs.
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Major flooding throughout all of Louisiana into MS tonight with continued surge likely. The ugliness is just getting started.
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Gfs trended towards the Euro with a more energetic Ida. It also shifted north a bit putting us near the warm sector aka the side with heavier winds and severe weather/tornadoes.
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The levee system has been rebuilt. Katrina was a much larger hurricane with a much higher peak intensity. Our building codes have improved since 2005. However the surge & inland flooding impacts will still be very bad for many. Ida should continue to slow prolonging the flooding dangers.
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Surge & flooding will matter a lot more than where the eyewall hits. Needless to say this won't be another Katrina. I actually feel the media will be disappointed by the lack of devastation though.
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Frictional effects could cause those Cat 5 like winds to mix down.
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We could have another case of a strengthening cane till landfall. If it delays its RI phase there won't be much time to cool off. Additionally people are not gonna evacuate unless they see it's a major cane coming towards them. That may not happen until 12 hrs before landfall giving no time to leave.
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It will be. I don't see any chance of 90s.
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So the ice is barely over the 2010s average and that's a win? We had one of the best ice retention patterns of the summer and are still near the bottom. Also we are continuing to lose older ice, in fact a record loss of older ice this year. But sure things are going swell. A brief pause before the next cliff dive.
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The cool down looks legit given the coming pattern. Very strong blocking pattern likely. Gfs has two shots of cool air on the heels of tropical system remnants from the gulf. So we will see relief soon.
