SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.
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That looks solid. Mets must be pulling their hair out right now. What a delicate setup.
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Given how perilous the setup is, the progressive bias of the GFS will lead to incredible run to run changes. It's really incredible how slight changes affect the entire outcome. The model volatility must be off the charts this close to the potential storm.
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These are some major shifts over 1 run. I'd be surprised if the GFS isn't better.
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The ultimate best case scenario meaning if everything worked out perfectly would be a slow crawling monster (960-950mb) just south of LI
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Toss both. Nam is completely inconsistent and should not be taken seriously beyond 36hrs here.
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Just goes to show if it phases early, the capture happens and it'll come far west.
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Sorry I guess the models didn't get your memo of a huge blizzard.
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In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff.
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This winter so far is a tale of too many cooks in the kitchen. Too many signals conflicting with one another. Feb will likely lean on the mild side but there's still Arctic shots getting thrown in. I'm still on the late Feb to March train. That's been a common theme. Hopefully we just torch though and get through this headache of a winter.
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It would be pretty funny if after all that tracking the 18z Nam verified.
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Nam is lol worthy. Even SNE gets screwed.
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We're still 2.5 days out so things have room to change. I'm much more optimistic after the 12z suite even if it looked bad overall. I like the trends out west. If they continue then it'll translate downstream eventually.
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A better PNA out west could help big time. Models seem to be trending that way. It could cancel out the dragging of the southern stream and lead to an earlier phase.
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Nice trends out west. Could still lead to a capture scenario but time is running out. I'll give it till tomorrow afternoon
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It looks worse than before and trending towards other models.
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I'm kind of optimistic about this working out somehow after being so negative about it. All it takes is a subtle shift in the southern stream ejection and everything changes. Because of the fast flow these subtleties may not be accurately captured until we're less than 36hrs out.
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It's like trying to catch a speeding bullet. You either catch it or you don't and it goes flying past you. The trough goes negative a little faster and the position shifts 100+ miles
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This could still go either way looking at the 12z runs. It really doesn't take much to go from big storm to nothing or vice versa.
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If the southern energy phases in faster then the 12z suite depicts then you'll see dramatic shifts from run to run. Maybe for once luck will be on your side
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The flow would've been slower allowing the SW shortwave to phase in and have the system go negative quickly. If for any reason the 12z suite is wrong and the energy phases in quickly then the entire outlook changes in a hurry. That's how delicate this setup is.
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Because small changes can make a huge difference (see 06z vs 12z Nam) this is still worth watching till tomorrow.
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Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong.
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So much hype building, I see plows everywhere and we might not get anything.
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Yeah if only it weren't the Nam at 84hrs. That being said there's a decent shift from 06z at 36-48hrs where Nam does well.
