SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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That's a blizzard btw. The wind gusts are ridiculous
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That's as good as it's gonna get for LI. One more shift like that and everyone wins
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A 50 mile west tick would be nice but oh well. Enjoy the blizzard, post plenty of pics
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Oh boy you're gonna get the weenies riled up.
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Atlantic City may break its Jan monthly record
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Epic storm for them possible
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Pick the scraper and you won't be disappointed.
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The west & east spread is just a matter of will there be a capture or not. In the event of a capture the surface low appears to head NW as the storm intensifies then ENE. That's clearly illustrated on the western side of the EPS.
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It's a little messy. If you're counting on a massive storm then temper those expectations. The odds of everything aligning perfectly in this pattern is very unlikely though not impossible. My expectations are very low for this. NYC east has much better odds, excellent odds for eastern LI.
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What a chaotic pattern. GFS op run is nuts. Who knows what to expect at this point. Snowman's torch Feb is going down in flames
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It may very well be. Everything is so close that it's going to be impossible to pinpoint this till it's happening. Just look at the run to run shifts. I don't think I've ever seen such volatility this close in. It's a forecasting nightmare.
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After the frustration this month that would be a massive win. The +AO/PNA couplet is not favorable for us but much more favorable for Boston hence why they're getting the big amounts.
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Stinks because we're so close to something much bigger. A slightly faster phase would make a world of difference.
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GFS clearly trending towards other models It may not get it right till tomorrow morning honestly
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Yes and there's still time to correct
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Given the delicate nature of this setup we may have to wait until tonight's runs to get a better idea of what will happen. Hopefully 12z is more positive though.
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Everything will sort itself out tomorrow.
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The intricacies of this storm is so detailed and subtle that a slight delay in phasing can mean the difference between the CMC/Ukie vs GFS. The Ukie was heading towards Bermuda yesterday. The 18z Nam was about to join. Normally we'd have more wiggle room via Atlantic blocking. The model craziness does remind me of Boxing day. How that storm came together last minute was a miracle.
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Well he'll either come out looking like a prophet or the warminista troll that he is.
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Gotta love that historic ice storm at day 10
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Ukie has snowier outputs than CMC which means the CMC is likely too low on amounts. Really curious to see what the Euro cooks up. Will it follow some of those intense western members?
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It's an outlier right now. A big one at that. The GFS/GEFS has a progressive bias. It blew chunks on the cutter especially the GEFS.
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That's happened before. Everyone assumed the Euro was going to give an amazing solution only to crap the bed.
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Oh yeah for sure. Ukie is another model that tends to hold out till the end on coastals. Given the developments that the Euro/EPS indicated at 18z, I would be very surprised if they didn't show a CMC like solution at 0z
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Idk if the Ukie will cave right away. Hopefully it trends better though. But if Euro holds or improves the GFS will go down in flames and likely make massive adjustments tomorrow.
