SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Thoughts and prayers to your 95+ readings Maybe in October
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At this point Fiona ain't missing the day 6 trough so now we'll have to see what the orientation of that trough is. Euro is very different compared to other guidance with it. How far west Fiona gets also makes a big difference. You'd need huge large scale changes for any sort of impact here though. SE Canada is easier
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Bermuda can handle Cat 3+ pretty easily. It's PR, DR that I'm worried about.
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I don't see any type of favorable blocking pattern and/or strong neutral/negative tilt trough coming in. The only chance of an impact is the Euro scenario where it gets left behind close to the east coast that ridging builds in enough to push it NW. Slim odds though
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There's compression of heat ahead of a strong trough but 95 will still be hard to pull off. Also cloud debris of any sort would get in the way. Low 90s max is my guess
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No chance in hell at 95
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Ensembles are pretty cool for that period.
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The weakness in the NW Atlantic when Fiona nears Hispaniola has gotten stronger which causes more poleward movement making it easier to get swept by the next trough. If it gets left behind like the Euro shows then it would come close to the coast. Early guess with 70% certainty is that it gets swept halfway between coast and Bermuda.
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Personally would love a nice big major hurricane halfway between Bermuda and the east coast. Perfect wave track
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There's no way this will follow the GFS given its current state. Honestly a track just south of Hispaniola before any north turn wouldn't surprise me.
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Wild to see the run to run changes a week out though.
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Earl was a mess for days but eventually it became a pretty significant hurricane. I think this will be a threat down the line. Models like its future prospects regardless of where it heads. The weaker it is now the greater the landfall risks
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They're ignorable until they're not. The weaker this stays now the more likely it'll get further west. Models seem pretty bullish on development down the line even if it plows into Hispaniola.
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We seem to be due for a flip soon. Likely not as cold vs prior periods due to continued effects of cc but much colder than we've been. Could this winter be the beginning of that. I hear 2000-01 being thrown around as an analog. Could be fitting since it marked the change from the mild/BN snow years of the mid-late 90s.
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Models can't figure things out 5 days out let alone 10. For example Euro's mega ridge from a couple runs ago is completely gone.
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Anything beyond 5 days is fantasy range to me.
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GFS ends with a weenie trough to end September. How JB like
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GFS really firing up the tropical threats
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Noticeably less humid outside compared to a few hours ago
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Often our heat in September ends with a tropical system.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season
SnoSki14 replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
Ridge builds over the east coast so track wise it could head pretty far west. -
Jesus Christ what a death ridge on the models. This is all time record highs stuff and it just sits there for days
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Yes Euro is a furnace. GFS will come around. Endless summer
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Some stray 90 readings are possible next week. LR EPS/GEFS does show some early signs of troughing to end September. Nice taste of fall later this week
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So wouldn't that just continue into winter. Every month has been well above normal if not a top 5 hot month. Also gotta love JB cherry picking that it's gonna be cold for a few days in parts of Europe after record heat/dry for months. Guess that disproves any warming.