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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    As far as damage goes I'm actually more concerned about the Friday system. That's a deep anomaly and a strong gradient that's been trending stronger on the ensembles.
  2. SnoSki14
    You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC.
  3. SnoSki14
    Gonna have to watch to see if this backs in more. As it shows now it would be an impressive storm with 3-5" totals. Very strong winds for the coast.
  4. SnoSki14
    Very Ida-esque on the Ukie. Wonder if Euro will follow
  5. SnoSki14
    If it's a subtropical or tropical system it's gonna get captured and forced further west. We really won't have an answer until tomorrow afternoon the earliest and possibly not until the event begins.
  6. SnoSki14
    You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.
  7. SnoSki14
    I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season.
  9. SnoSki14
    Wow very impressive Nam run. Storm explodes right off the coast and if the trends of the last few years are any indication then that low could be tucked further west.
  10. SnoSki14
    Record warm ssts & recent heat just adding fuel to the fire.
  11. SnoSki14
    Things are gonna get a lot more active next week. Big south'easter possible just before Halloween. Lots of cooler, easterly flow though we do warm sector Monday hard. Think 80F to 50F type transition possible Monday-Tuesday.
  12. SnoSki14
    Well it's been July like since July so I hope eventually there's some climo. Warmest fall on record for most places in the northeast through today.
  13. SnoSki14
    Just an absolute scorcher since August. Even a return to normal would feel cold given current anomalies. Very scary times we're looking living in. I imagine within a decade or two numerous 80s in October will be the norm with 90+ temperatures possible.
  14. SnoSki14
    I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yeah probably the case though anything that far out is tough to diagnose.
  16. SnoSki14
    If I could choose I'd have all my cold & snow from Nov 1-Jan 15. Lowest sun angle, holiday season, little daylight. Of course normally it's the back half that gives us the cold/snows.
  17. SnoSki14
    It definitely will be too much. When you flip from extreme drought to flooding there will be problems.
  18. SnoSki14
    Strong coastal signal for next week though not sure where it'll end up. EPS definitely has more of a +PNA showing up late October into early November.
  19. SnoSki14
    No offense but if it were the reverse right now you would say the pattern would change in time and cause a mild, snowfree winter. I personally think we're going to an AN temp winter with near normal snows though that's highly dependent on blocking.
  20. SnoSki14
    Foliage is well behind schedule. Will probably go well into November this year.
  21. SnoSki14
    That just confirms the warm start. Maybe things will change mid November but that's way out there. Speaking of warm, next 2 days will approach 80F again.
  22. SnoSki14
    I think the evidence is pretty clear then and currently November looks to start AN. Not as warm as October of course but still mild relative to normal.
  23. SnoSki14
    During a La Nina with a strongly negative fall PDO?
  24. SnoSki14
    A warm fall Oct/Nov guarantees a warm winter. We have to accept that winters will be warm from now on but that's doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow still.
  25. SnoSki14
    If the right conditions are in place this winter the current warmth could add fuel to the fire. SSTs are at record highs. After Dec 2015's insane warmth we got the Jan blizzard. Big IF though and we'll need plenty of blocking.
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